航运衍生品数据日报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market shows a state of "near - term decline, long - term expectation". The freight rate framework for late December has been clarified but needs further implementation, while the outline of January freight rates is emerging. The market is in an entangled state and needs time to resolve disturbing factors. The report currently holds a neutral and wait - and - see attitude towards the market [8]. - The strategy recommended in the report is to adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is currently at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.29% from 1112. SCFI - US West is 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - US West is 960, up 1.18%; SCFI - US East is 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1538, up 9.86%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1509, up 1.75%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2737, up 19.00% [5]. Contract Information - For contracts, EC2506 is currently at 1260.8, up 2.75%; EC2608 is 1431.7, up 3.61%; EC2610 is 1030.0, up 0.82%; EC2512 is 1650.0, down 0.19%; EC5602 is 1677.8, down 0.66%; EC2604 is 1106.0, up 1.22% [5]. - Regarding contract positions, the current position of EC2606 is 2355, an increase of 59 from the previous value; EC2608 is 1555; EC2610 is 4582, an increase of 291; EC2512 is 2947, a decrease of 84; EC2602 is 31664, an increase of 41; EC2604 is 19930, an increase of 653 [5]. - For monthly spreads, the 12 - 02 spread is currently - 27.8, an increase of 8.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 544.0, a decrease of 16.4; the 02 - 04 spread is 571.8, a decrease of 24.5 [5]. Market News and Impact - Global major liner company CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through key channels such as the Suez Canal and the Bab el Mandeb has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6]. - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity in December, with a blank sailing rate of only 0.9%, and ship maintenance further reduced capacity. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, leading to longer ship turnaround times and more cargo rejections, while strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI promotions drive up the market. Freight rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and the New Year. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%, and many European countries face shortages of containers and trailers [6]. EC Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, etc.; in late December, MSK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2050, etc. MSK has issued a price increase letter for January, aiming for 3500 [7]. - In the main contract, there is a fierce game between long and short positions. Long - position investors rely on the dual expectations of price increases in late December and January to confirm the market's landing expectations, waiting for the "catalyst" of high expectations in January. Short - position investors rely on the time advantage, hoping for more price cuts in late December, an early peak, and a price war, and believe that most of the expectations have been factored into the price. The current attitude is neutral and wait - and - see [8].