——2025年苹果市场回顾与2026年展望：苹果：万树垂珠摇欲坠，一朝风起散作尘

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the apple futures price showed an overall upward trend with the core driver being continuous unfavorable weather, which led to the downward revision of supply - side expectations. In 2026, whether the apple futures price will continue to rise or fall after reaching a high depends on the weather. The marginal driving force for further upward movement is weakening, and the price is expected to enter a topping stage. The apple 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall [2][3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Analysis - Long - term Trends: Since the listing of apple futures in 2017, the price has experienced multiple fluctuations, affected by factors such as market understanding, supply - demand situation, weather, and changes in delivery standards [11] - 2025 Trends: The 2025 apple active contract price showed an obvious upward trend, divided into three main stages. The 01 contract went through four stages: "month - changing and reaching a high - supply - demand stalemate - expectation - driven - reality - realization". The core driver shifted from delivery logic to concerns about the yield and quality of new - season apples [20][24] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of apple futures continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 20,315,094 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 10.21%, and the cumulative turnover was 1,584.078 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. The open interest was relatively stable from January to September and slightly increased in October [25] 1.2 Spot Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic apple spot price showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with regional differences. In Shandong, the price trend was relatively complex, rising slightly from January to April, remaining stable from May to June, falling slightly from July to August, and rising moderately from September to November. In Shaanxi, the price rose slightly in the first half of the year and showed a stable "high - opening and stable - running" pattern in the second half [34] Part 2: Apple Supply Market Analysis - This Season's Yield and Premium Fruit Rate: The yield is expected to be at a low level in the past five years, and the premium fruit rate of some key indicators is lower than that in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable weather during the growth period [37] - This Season's Peak Inventory Level: The peak inventory level of apples this season is the lowest in the past five years, which further strengthens the market's expectation of medium - to - long - term supply tightening [45] - Next Season's Supply Expectation: Although the upstream profit has been repaired this season, the structural problems in the industry still exist. The supply in the next season is uncertain, and the weather is still the key variable affecting the yield [47] Part 3: Apple Demand Market Analysis - Population and Disposable Income: The population growth rate has slowed down in recent years, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also converged, resulting in insufficient support for terminal consumption [55] - Total Fruit Output: The total fruit output has been increasing continuously, with more supply varieties, longer supply periods of seasonal fruits, and a converging price system, which has continuously squeezed the consumption space of apples [59] - 2024/25 Consumption: The apple consumption in the 2024/25 fruit season was mediocre, with no significant changes. The consumption in the 2025/26 fruit season is likely to continue the current pattern, and the core driver of consumption depends on the improvement of the overall economic environment and the restoration of consumer confidence [67] Part 4: Apple Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2025/26, the apple supply - demand expectation shows a slight downward trend. The supply is expected to decrease year - on - year, and the consumption also shows a stable - to - slightly - decreasing trend. The analysis of the supply - demand balance sheet is mainly based on the estimated yield, and it is difficult to guide the price significantly [76] Part 5: Seasonal Analysis - Spot Price Seasonality: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples has a relatively large increase probability in February, May - August, and a relatively large decrease probability in March, October - December, which is related to the growth cycle, holidays, and inventory levels of apples [78] - Futures Price Seasonality: The apple futures index has a relatively high probability of rising in February and April and a relatively high probability of falling in March, May, and December. Seasonal rules are only for reference [81] Part 6: Apple Market Outlook and Price Forecast - Supply: In 2026, the supply this season has tightened significantly, and the supply in the next season has a repair expectation, but it still depends on the weather [87] - Demand: The apple consumption in 2026 will continue the dull pattern, lacking driving factors. The consumption is mainly affected by the macro - consumption environment, and the consumption space is continuously squeezed [88] - Price Forecast: The apple futures price in 2026 is expected to enter a topping stage. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 8800 - 10500, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall in the range of 7500 - 9500. For operation, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2605 contract and sell on rallies for the 2610 contract [88] Part 7: Apple Options Market Analysis - Options Market Situation: Not elaborated in detail in the content - Options Operation Strategies: For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums; for downstream enterprises, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs; for speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [93] Part 8: Related Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of related companies such as Guotou Zhonglu, Honghui Fruit and Vegetable, etc. showed different degrees of changes in 2025. For example, Guotou Zhonglu increased by 52.34%, and Honghui Fruit and Vegetable increased by 106.51% [94]