——2025年棕榈与菜系市场回顾与2026年展望：棕榈与菜系：蓬身已随洪波宽，菘节犹阻寒潭清

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm Oil: In 2025, the palm oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the center of the price shifting upwards. In 2026, the global supply - demand of palm oil is expected to remain in a tight - balance state. The price is likely to show a fluctuating trend with a rising center, ranging from 8300 to 9800. Domestic supply and demand are expected to continue the double - weak trend [2][3][153]. - Cuisine Oils and Meals: In 2025, the rapeseed oil futures fluctuated upwards, while the rapeseed meal futures showed wide - range fluctuations. In 2026, the global supply of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, and the supply - demand outlook will turn loose. However, the domestic supply will be tight. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, with the price range of rapeseed oil from 9000 to 10100 and that of rapeseed meal from 2200 to 2800 [3][4][156]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Market Trend Review - Palm Oil: The price experienced significant drops, rebounds, and fluctuations due to factors such as the delay of Indonesia's B40 policy, changes in export demand, and geopolitical situations [17][18]. - Rapeseed Oil: The price showed a trend of decline, rise, and then decline again, affected by factors like import policies, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [21][22]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price fluctuated greatly, influenced by factors such as changes in soybean supply, trade relations, and seasonal demand [26][27]. 3.2 Production, Supply, and Import - Export of Oil Crops - Palm Oil: Indonesia's production increased significantly, and Malaysia's production remained high even in the off - season. Overseas demand was at an average level, and Indonesia's B40 policy benefited domestic biodiesel demand. China's import profit was low, and the import volume was low [29][35][50]. - Cuisine Oils and Meals: The supply of old - season rapeseed was tight, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased slightly. After the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, Australia's rapeseed gradually replaced it as an import source [58][71]. 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing, Consumption, and Demand - Biodiesel Consumption: Diesel strength improved biodiesel blending profit, and Indonesia's B40 policy advanced well. The EPA's proposed rule indicated an unexpected increase in US biodiesel, and its actual implementation needs attention [80][81]. - Palm Oil Domestic Inventory: Supply turned loose, while demand remained weak. In the first half of 2025, it was in a double - weak state, and the inventory increased in the second half [82]. - Cuisine Oils and Meals Production, Operation, and Consumption Demand: Coastal oil mills were close to shutdown but were expected to recover at the end of the year. Supply lacked increment, but inventory was still high due to weak demand [92][100]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Its Interpretation - Global Rapeseed: In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, and inventory tightened. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase, and supply will turn loose [107][108]. - Domestic Rapeseed: In the 2024/25 season, production and import increased. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase slightly, but import will be restricted, and supply will be tight [109][110]. - Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, and there will be supply gaps [114]. - Palm Oil: In the 2024/25 season, global production and demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, supply and demand are expected to increase, and inventory will accumulate slightly [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - Palm Oil: Its price is affected by factors such as oil production and festival consumption. The price usually drops in March - April and June and rises in the fourth quarter [119]. - Rapeseed Oil: Its price has seasonal fluctuations related to weather and consumption. It rises in winter and drops in May - June [122]. - Rapeseed Meal: Its consumption is seasonal, with high demand from May to August and low demand in winter [125]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Palm Oil: The medium - and long - term upward trend remains, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels in Q1 2026 [128]. - Rapeseed Oil: The price has fallen to the annual average line, and attention should be paid to the market performance near the annual line [132]. - Rapeseed Meal: It maintained a box - shock trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range [137]. 3.7 Option Analysis - Palm Oil Option: Volatility remained stable, and the market expects the short - term price to fluctuate between 8400 and 9000 [140]. - Rapeseed Oil Option: Volatility decreased compared to last year, and the market has obvious differences in the future price, with the range from 8200 to 11200 [144]. - Rapeseed Meal Option: Volatility decreased, and market participation declined. The market's price prediction range is from 2300 to 2600 [148][150]. 3.8 Full - Text Summary and Future Market Outlook - Palm Oil: In 2026, global supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a rising center. Domestic supply and demand will continue to be weak [153][155]. - Cuisine Oils and Meals: In 2026, global supply will turn loose, while domestic supply will be tight. Prices are expected to fluctuate, and the key factor is the development of China - Canada trade relations [156][157]. 3.9 Related Listed Company Stock Statistics The report provides stock price and year - to - date performance data of several listed companies in the grain and oil processing, feed processing, and aquaculture industries [159].