——2025年贵金属市场回顾与2026年展望：贵金属：金银岂是池中物一遇风云便化龙

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market shone brightly. Gold and silver were the best - performing assets among global major asset classes, with silver doubling in value and gold rising over 60%, the best annual performance since 1979. The underlying logic driving this bull market was the global shake of faith in the US dollar system, the decline of the real interest rate's explanatory power for precious metal prices, and the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve. Precious metals were re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets [2][167]. - In 2026, the bull market in the precious metals market is expected to continue. The factors driving the 2025 rise may be strengthened. The Fed chair change, potential interest rate cuts, and increased US debt issuance may further undermine the US dollar's credit. Global central banks are likely to maintain strong gold - buying intentions, and investment demand for precious metals is expected to be further released. Silver may have a larger price increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may further decline [3][4][168]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections I. Review of Long - term and 2025 Trends of Precious Metals - Long - term historical trends: Since the Bretton Woods system in 1944, the gold price has experienced multiple bull - bear cycles. After the system collapsed in the 1970s, the gold price became market - oriented. From 1972 - 2023, it can be divided into five stages: the 1973 - 1980 bull market, the 1980 - 2000 bear market, the 2000 - 2011 bull market, the 2011 - 2018 bear market, and the 2019 - present bull market [12][13][14]. - 2025 trends: Gold had two main upward waves in 2025, reaching a high of nearly $4400 per ounce. Silver's performance was even more remarkable, with a cumulative increase of over 80%. The gold - silver ratio declined from a high level [19][20][21]. II. Decline of the Explanatory Power of US Treasury Real Interest Rates for Precious Metal Prices Since 2023, US Treasury real interest rates have shown a positive correlation with gold prices. In 2025, their explanatory power for gold prices further weakened. The US debt, deficit, and damaged US dollar credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold, and the pricing logic has shifted from the financial to the monetary attribute [27][28]. III. The Underlying Logic of the Current Precious Metals Bull Market is Global De - dollarization - The US dollar returning to its intrinsic value: In 2025, the US dollar index declined by over 10%. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to address the US trade deficit and manufacturing hollowing - out, which may lead to a long - term decline in the US dollar index [32][33]. - Shaken faith in the US dollar: In 2025, the US dollar and US Treasuries lost their safe - haven properties and began to show risk - asset characteristics. Gold and silver's safe - haven properties were highlighted [38][39]. - Loosening of global capital's focus on US dollar assets: In 2025, global capital reduced its allocation of US dollar assets and increased non - US assets. Precious metals benefited from this capital flow. In 2026, the attractiveness of US dollar assets may increase, but precious metals still have investment value [42][43][46]. - Inability of stablecoins and the "Pennsylvania Plan" to fundamentally strengthen US dollar and US Treasury credit: Stablecoins can temporarily increase US Treasury demand, but in the long run, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar credit system. The "Pennsylvania Plan" has not achieved the expected results in stabilizing the long - term US Treasury demand [49][53][57]. - The US dollar index entering a new medium - to - long - term downward channel: Historically, the US dollar index has a cycle of about 17 years, with 6 - 7 years of rising and 10 years of falling. Currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle, which is favorable for the rise of precious metal prices [60][61][62]. IV. The Monetary Attributes of Precious Metals Shine Global high debt and shaken faith in the US dollar have made gold and silver the ultimate choice to hedge against the risk of the credit - currency system. In 2025, global major economies' long - term bond yields rose, and the US and French sovereign ratings were downgraded. The US Treasury debt scale expanded rapidly, and global central banks increased their gold holdings. The Fed's independence was severely challenged, which was conducive to the rise of precious metal prices [70][71][75]. V. Redefinition of Precious Metals - Transition from safe - haven to inflation - resistant and risk assets: Gold and silver are being re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets. In 2026, with the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, global inflation may rise again, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [90][91]. - Highlighted value as a major asset allocation: Gold and silver have both risk - asset attributes. Their volatility is similar to that of the S&P 500, and their positive correlation with the US stock market is increasing. They are becoming an important part of global major asset allocation [94]. VI. Changes in the Supply - Demand Structure of Precious Metals - Global central banks' gold - buying: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying pace slowed down in the first half of the year but accelerated in the third quarter. It is expected that in 2026, central banks' gold - buying intentions will remain strong due to the potential weakening of the US dollar credit [96][99][101]. - Global physical gold supply and demand: In 2025, gold investment demand soared, compensating for the decline in central banks' gold - buying. Although the supply was slightly in surplus in the first three quarters, the supply - demand pattern tightened compared to 2024. In 2026, the physical gold market may face a supply shortage [106][110][111]. - Global physical silver supply and demand: In recent years, silver supply has been constrained. In 2025, supply is expected to increase by about 2%. In 2026, the supply growth rate may be about 1.5%. Demand in 2025 is expected to decline by 1%, but in 2026, it may increase by 2%. The silver market has had a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the shortage may widen in 2026 [112][121][127]. VII. Technical and Seasonal Analysis - Technical analysis: Gold's upward space has been fully opened. Based on historical bull - market performance, it still has room for growth. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering the bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. Technically, it supports a significant increase in silver prices [144][146]. - Seasonal analysis: For gold, December has the highest winning rate, and November - January is the strong - season period. For silver, January and June have a higher probability of decline, while March and October have a higher probability of increase [149]. VIII. Position Changes In 2025, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. The non - commercial net long positions in the futures market decreased, but the spot - market sentiment was stronger, as shown by the increase in ETF holdings [157]. IX. Arbitrage Strategy The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. In 2025, the gold - silver ratio declined. In 2026, with the rise of inflation expectations and copper prices, the gold - silver ratio is expected to further decline to around 60 [162][163]. X. Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions The bull market in the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to continue. The upper pressure range for London gold is $5000 - $5200 per ounce, and the lower support range is $4100 - $4300 per ounce. For Shanghai gold futures, the pressure range is 1200 - 1250 yuan per gram, and the support range is 920 - 940 yuan per gram. The upper pressure range for London silver is $90 - $95 per ounce, and the lower support range is $55 - $60 per ounce. For Shanghai silver futures, the pressure range is 19000 - 20000 yuan per kilogram, and the support range is 13000 - 13500 yuan per kilogram [168]. XI. Related Stocks The report lists the cumulative price increases of some precious - metal - related stocks in 2025, such as Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a 59.05% increase and Western Gold (601069.SH) with a 129.82% increase [170].