——2025年玉米及玉米淀粉市场回顾与2026年展望：玉米：青纱帐起接天势，金缕风回落地痕

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the corn futures price showed a "rise - fall - rise" trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the corn futures price is expected to rise first and then fall, with the key points being the release rhythm and time of old grain and the expected difference in total quantity confirmation. The price of CBOT corn may gradually bottom out and rebound, which will support the domestic corn market sentimentally. The consumption side is expected to be in a slow de - capacity game stage, and the domestic corn yield in the next year is initially expected to remain stable, but the weather uncertainty makes the driving force unclear. The expected fluctuation ranges of corn contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2200 - 2350, 2170 - 2340, and 2230 - 2360 respectively. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [2]. - In 2025, the center of the corn starch futures price did not change significantly, and the fluctuation trend was basically the same as that of the cost corn futures price, showing a "rise - fall - rise" rhythm. In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to remain relatively balanced, and the profit game will still be the main theme. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost. The expected operating ranges of corn starch contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2480 - 2660, 2460 - 2670, and 2560 - 2700 respectively. It is also recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - Long - term Historical Review: The corn futures price trend can be divided into six stages since 2004. Each stage is affected by policies, economic situations, and supply - demand relationships. For example, from 2004 - 2008, without the temporary storage purchase policy, the corn price rose continuously; from 2008 - 2015, the corn market was supported by the temporary storage purchase policy; from 2015 - 2016, it entered the post - temporary storage policy era, and the price fell sharply [13][14][18]. - 2025 Futures Market Summary: The futures price of the main corn contract in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating pattern, which can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to mid - October, and rebounding from late October to November. The price center at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year [22]. - 2025 Spot Market Summary: The corn spot price in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating trend, and the operating range at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year. The price showed a "rise - fall - rebound" pattern, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather [24][26]. - Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation: In 2025, the trading activity of the corn futures market increased compared with the previous year. The cumulative trading volume from January to November was 163,009,844 lots, a year - on - year increase of 15.30%, and the cumulative trading volume was 36,872 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.33%. The overall position - holding level was slightly higher than that in 2024, showing a distribution characteristic of "high at both ends and low in the middle" [28]. 3.2 Corn Starch Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - Long - term Historical Review: The price trend of corn starch futures is highly correlated with that of corn futures. It can be divided into six stages since 2014, affected by factors such as corn price, supply - demand, and policies [35][36]. - 2025 Futures Market Summary: The corn starch futures price in 2025 showed an oscillating trend, with limited change in the annual fluctuation center. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to October, and rebounding in November, which is basically consistent with the trend of the raw material corn price [40]. - 2025 Spot Market Summary: The corn starch spot price in 2025 first rose and then fell, following the trend of the raw material corn price. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, consolidating narrowly from July to August, and falling from September to November [41]. - Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation: From January to November 2025, the cumulative trading volume of corn starch futures was 33,603,107 lots, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%, but the cumulative trading volume was 8,711.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%. The overall position - holding scale remained relatively stable, and the position - holding volume at the end of November was 330,503 lots, slightly higher than that in the same period of 2024 [45]. 3.3 Global Corn Market Situation - 2025/26 Global Corn Yield Estimated to Increase Year - on - Year: The global corn yield in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high of 1.286 billion tons, an increase of 55.49 million tons compared with the previous year. The United States is the core driving force for the increase, with an estimated yield of 425.525 million tons, an increase of 47.257 million tons year - on - year [52]. - Increasing Disagreements on 2026/27 Global Corn Yield: In the 2026/27 season, the global corn planting area is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend. The influence of weather factors on yield is expected to be more prominent [57][58]. - Steady and Slight Increase in Global Corn Demand: The global corn consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 1.284 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.74%. Feed consumption is the main support, and industrial consumption also shows a slow - growth expectation [62]. - CBOT Corn Price Expected to Bottom Out and Rebound: In 2026, the supply side of the global corn market is expected to be stable, and the demand side shows structural highlights. The price of CBOT corn is expected to show a trend of rising in the first half of the year and oscillating at a high level in the second half of the year [66][67]. 3.4 Domestic Corn Market Situation - Supply Market Analysis - Increasing Yield Pattern Set, Quality Differentiation and Purchase - Sales Rhythm Become Focus: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn yield is expected to increase, but there is significant regional quality differentiation in North China. The selling rhythm of farmers and traders will affect the price rhythm in different periods [71][72]. - Limited Change in 2026/27 Planting Area, Weather Still the Dominant Factor for Yield: The corn planting area in 2026 is expected to be relatively stable, and the yield is initially estimated to be stable with a slight increase. However, weather is still the key variable affecting the final yield [78]. - 2025/26 Import Volume Expected to Remain at a Low Level: From January to October 2025, China's corn import volume was only 129.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.1%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to recover slightly but still remain at a low level [81][82]. - Demand Market Analysis - Limited Increment in Feed Consumption, Substitution as the Anchor: In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be stable with limited increment. The breeding industry is expected to continue to reduce capacity slowly, and substitution by other grains will cause periodic disturbances [85][86]. - 2025/26 Industrial Consumption Expected to be Stable: The domestic corn industrial consumption market is expected to maintain a "stable with a slight increase" pattern in the 2025/26 season. However, the starch and alcohol industries are affected by cost pressure and have weak support for corn consumption [108][109]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand is expected to remain relatively balanced. The supply side shows a stable year - on - year trend, and the demand side also maintains a stable expectation [116]. 3.5 Corn Starch Market Fundamentals - Supply Market Analysis - Yield Expected to Decrease Slightly Year - on - Year under the Expectation of Profit Convergence: In 2025, the corn starch industry was under the triple pressure of weak demand, high cost, and low profit, and the yield decreased significantly. In 2026, the industry is still expected to face the contradiction of rising cost and weak demand, and the yield is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [118]. - Demand Market Analysis - Insufficient Incremental Drivers: In 2026, the terminal consumption of corn starch is expected to continue the stable and weak trend, lacking growth highlights. The consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [121]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis: In 2026, the supply and demand of corn starch in China are expected to decline. The industry is expected to show a relatively balanced state [124]. 3.6 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - Cross - Variety Arbitrage: The spread between corn starch and corn is recommended to be treated with an interval - trading idea. Currently, the spreads in May and September are in the middle - low range, and there is limited downward space. In the short term, the spread is expected to continue to shrink, and there is a repair expectation in the medium term [129]. - Corn Cross - Period Arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the May - March contract spread and going short on the May - September contract spread of corn. The current fundamentals support the May contract the most [131]. 3.7 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal Analysis of Corn Index Price: According to the seasonal chart of the corn futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [133]. - Seasonal Analysis of Corn Starch Index Price: According to the seasonal chart of the corn starch futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in January, February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [138]. 3.8 Corn and Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - Corn Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions: In 2026, the supply - side focuses on the release rhythm of grain sources, yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand - side focuses on the breeding and deep - processing markets. The overall consumption of corn is expected to be weak, but periodic disturbances are still the focus. The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [142][143][145]. - Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions: In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to be relatively balanced, and the profit game is still the main theme. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [149]. 3.9 Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategy - Corn Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy: Based on the judgment that the corn 2605 contract fluctuates in the range of 2200 - 2400, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [155]. - Corn Starch Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy: Based on the judgment that the corn starch 2603 contract fluctuates in the range of 2460 - 2670, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [162]. 3.10 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the stock price changes of several companies related to the corn industry in 2025, such as Muyuan Co., Ltd. with a rise of 29.77%, New Hope with a rise of 3.42%, and Zhengbang Technology with a fall of 13.82% [163].