——2025年甲醇市场回顾与2026年展望：甲醇：千风过甲醇岸冰消未见春

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the methanol futures market was weak, breaking the wide - range oscillation pattern with a continuously declining center of gravity. The fundamental factors lacked driving forces, and the market was sluggish. The domestic methanol spot market had over - capacity, and with the launch of new production capacities, the supply - demand pressure increased. The supply remained stable, while the terminal demand was poor due to the macro - environment. The downstream industries showed differentiation, and the port inventory reached a historical high [1][125]. - In 2026, the methanol production capacity will still expand, but the expansion speed will slow down. The new projects are mostly integrated with downstream facilities, so the impact on domestic supply may be limited. The downstream demand is still dominated by coal - to - olefins, and traditional demand industries such as acetic acid may have certain increments. The market is expected to gradually reduce inventory, and the supply - demand relationship will remain weak. The futures price is expected to return to the previous wide - range oscillation range, showing a trend of lower at the beginning and higher at the end, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [2][126]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Market Review 3.1.1 Historical Trend Review - From 2011 to 2013, methanol showed high - level oscillation, with a price range of about 2530 - 3150. After its listing, it was affected by new - speculation funds and then reversed due to the reduction of international supply [11]. - From 2013 to 2015, it experienced a sharp rise and fall. The high price led to downstream resistance, and factors such as over - capacity and weak demand caused the price to drop to a low level [12][13]. - From 2016 to 2018, it rebounded from the bottom. The improvement of supply - demand relationship, the rise of international oil prices, and the support of coal prices drove the price up [14]. - From 2018 to 2020, it entered a weak adjustment period. High prices, environmental policies, and weak demand led to a continuous decline in the price, reaching a historical low in 2020 [15][16]. - From 2020 to 2021, it showed a restorative increase. The improvement of the macro - environment and the demand, as well as the impact of policies and cost factors, promoted the price to rise to a new high [17]. - From 2021 to 2023, it fell rapidly. The decline of coal prices, the general decline of the commodity market, and the impact of the macro - environment led to a continuous decline in the price [18]. - Since the second half of 2023, it has been in a wide - range oscillation, with the center of gravity fluctuating between 1950 - 2730 [19]. 3.1.2 Methanol Trend in 2025 - In 2025, the methanol futures market showed a phased decline. It reached an annual high of 2725 at the beginning of the year, then fell to around 2200 in May. After a short - term rebound, it continued to decline, breaking through 2000 in October and reaching a five - year low. As of December 12, the annual decline was 23.53% [22]. 3.2 Price Fluctuation Analysis 3.2.1 Seasonal Characteristics - Methanol consumption has seasonal characteristics. The demand is low during the Spring Festival and from June to August, and high from September to October and in winter. However, in recent years, the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons has become less obvious [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - As of the end of November 2025, the trading volume of methanol futures was 165.8372 million lots, the trading value was 3.929235 trillion yuan, and the open interest was 1.0488 million lots. In recent years, the trading volume has shown a downward trend, and the open interest has shown a phased increase. In 2025, the trading activity decreased, and the open interest was relatively stable [30][31]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Environment 3.3.1 Stable National Economy - In 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend under the influence of positive macro - policies, despite facing complex international and domestic situations [36]. 3.3.2 The Fed's Third Interest Rate Cut in the Year - In 2024, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020. In 2025, it cut interest rates three times, and there was a "roller - coaster" - like fluctuation in the December interest - rate cut expectation. It is expected to cut interest rates once in 2026 [37]. 3.3.3 LPR Remained Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months - Since May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs have remained unchanged for six consecutive months, which is in line with market expectations, mainly due to the stable and strong macro - economy [43]. 3.4 Methanol Supply Analysis 3.4.1 Stabilized and Rising Coal Prices - In 2025, coal prices first declined and then rose. The supply tightened due to safety inspections and other factors, and the demand increased due to high - temperature weather and other reasons. In 2026, coal supply may remain stable, and the price range may move up [46][47]. 3.4.2 Pressured International Oil Prices - International oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation with a downward - shifted price center, mainly due to the supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors. In 2026, the oversupply issue may intensify, and the price center may continue to move down [51][52]. 3.4.3 Alternating Rise and Fall of Spot Prices - In 2025, the domestic methanol spot market showed an alternating rise - and - fall pattern with a downward - shifted center of gravity. It was affected by macro - news and geopolitical factors. In 2026, the supply will remain stable, and the price may stop falling and operate at a low level [55]. 3.4.4 Increased Production with High - level Operation - In 2025, the methanol industry's operation rate increased, and the production was sufficient. The annual production is expected to exceed 90 million tons. In 2026, the operation rate will still focus on the spring maintenance period [64][65]. 3.4.5 Sustained Growth of Production Capacity - China's methanol production capacity is still growing, but the growth rate is slowing down. In 2025, some new production capacities were released, and in 2026, there are still plans for new capacity launches [66]. 3.4.6 High - level Imports - In 2025, methanol imports showed a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, with an expected annual import volume of about 14.41 million tons. In 2026, imports may continue this pattern, but the increment may be limited [75]. 3.5 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Steady Increase in Market Consumption - Methanol consumption has been increasing year by year, but the growth rate has slowed down since 2020. In 2025, the consumption is expected to reach about 105 million tons. In 2026, the downstream consumption industries will still show differentiation, and attention should be paid to the increment in emerging fields [78][79]. 3.5.2 Performance of Downstream Demand Industries - Coal - to - olefins dominates the downstream demand, accounting for more than 50%. In 2025, the coal - to - olefins industry maintained a high operation rate, and the traditional demand industries showed a slight recovery. In 2026, the acetic acid industry will enter an expansion cycle, while the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries will face over - capacity problems [81][92]. 3.5.3 Slight Increase in Export Market - In 2025, China's methanol exports improved significantly, with an expected annual export volume of more than 260,000 tons. In 2026, the export may return to a low level due to the narrowing of the arbitrage space [103]. 3.5.4 Record - high Port Inventory - In 2025, the methanol port inventory first decreased and then increased, reaching a historical high of 1.674 million tons in November. In 2026, the high - inventory pressure will continue [107]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the methanol market supply - demand relationship remained loose. In 2026, the supply will continue to expand, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory state will persist [110]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - From a long - term perspective, the upward - converging triangle pattern of methanol futures was broken, and it is in a weak oscillation pattern. In 2026, it is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [114]. 3.8 Options Market Operation - In 2025, the methanol options market fluctuated sharply, with high implied volatility and a bearish sentiment. As of December 12, 2025, the daily trading volume was 241,116 lots, the open interest was 145,747 lots, the weighted implied volatility was 19%, and the open - interest PCR was 77.67%. In 2026, considering the weak oscillation of methanol, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options with low strike prices [124]. 3.9 Market Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, the methanol production capacity will expand at a slower pace, and the downstream demand will still be dominated by coal - to - olefins. The market is expected to gradually reduce inventory, and the supply - demand relationship will remain weak. The futures price is expected to show a trend of lower at the beginning and higher at the end, with support at 1850 - 1950 and resistance at 2600 - 2700 [2][126]. 3.10 Industry - related Stocks - The report lists some methanol - related stocks and their annual price changes as of December 12, 2025, including Hualu Hengsheng, Yuanxing Energy, etc. [128]