——2025年尿素市场回顾与2026年展望：尿素：冬去春犹近波平势渐升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the urea futures market showed a low - level operation, with the center of gravity rising first and then falling, fluctuating mainly between 1600 - 1950. The supply - demand relationship was continuously loose, and the market followed seasonal patterns [1][2][123]. - In 2026, the urea market will continue the trend of high - start and high - supply, with abundant supply. Agricultural demand will grow, but industrial demand may have limited growth. The export situation may gradually improve, but the supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to change. The urea futures may continue to fluctuate at a low level, with the downward adjustment space limited by cost, and the upward driving force not strong [2][125][126]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review 3.1.1 Historical Trend Review - From August 2019 to 2020, the urea futures price fluctuated between 1500 - 1850, lacking a clear trend [12]. - From 2021, due to supply - side reform and the rise of coal prices, the urea price rebounded from a low level, reaching a high of 3357 in October 2021 [13]. - After 2021, due to capacity expansion, policy influence and weakening demand, the urea price entered a downward adjustment phase, and in October 2025, it fell below 1600 [14]. 3.1.2 2025 Urea Trend - In 2025, the urea futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the overall center of gravity slightly moving down, mainly fluctuating between 1600 - 1930. The annual decline was - 4.80% as of December 12 [17]. 3.2 Price Fluctuation Analysis 3.2.1 Seasonal Characteristics - The demand for urea has obvious seasonal characteristics. May - July is the peak season, accounting for about 40% of the annual demand. After mid - October, it enters the off - season [20]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - As of the end of November 2025, the trading volume of urea futures was 173,400 lots, and the open interest was 223,800 lots. In 2025, the trading activity increased [27]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Environment 3.3.1 Stable National Economy - In 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend despite challenges, with positive policies playing an important role [31][33]. 3.3.2 The Fed's Third Rate Cut in the Year - In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, and it is expected to cut rates once in 2026 [34]. 3.3.3 LPR Remained Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months - Since May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR have remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations [38]. 3.4 Urea Supply Analysis 3.4.1 Coal Price Stabilized and Rebounded - In 2025, the coal price first declined and then rebounded. In 2026, the coal supply may remain stable, and the price range may move up [46]. 3.4.2 Spot Market Operated at a Low Level - In 2025, the urea spot price was weak and volatile, with a narrowing range. In 2026, the price may rebound from a low level [49]. 3.4.3 New Capacity was Gradually Released - In 2025, many new urea production capacities came into operation, and the total capacity may reach about 84 million tons by the end of the year. In 2026, the planned new capacity is 3.99 million tons, mainly concentrated at the end of the year [53]. 3.4.4 Sufficient Supply of Goods - In 2025, the urea production increased significantly, and the annual output may reach about 72.09 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to maintain a steady growth [60]. 3.4.5 Enterprise Inventory Declined from a High Level - In 2025, the urea enterprise inventory started at a high level, reaching a record high of 1.7459 million tons in mid - February. As of early December, it slightly decreased to 1.2342 million tons. In 2026, inventory pressure will still exist [73]. 3.5 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Export Market Gradually Expanded - In 2025, the urea export increased significantly, with the total export quota exceeding 4 million tons. The annual export volume may approach the 2023 level. In 2026, export prospects are uncertain [82]. 3.5.2 Steady Growth in Market Consumption - In 2025, urea consumption first increased and then decreased, with an estimated annual consumption of about 64.33 million tons. In 2026, consumption is expected to continue to grow [90]. 3.5.3 Agricultural Demand Fluctuated Seasonally - In 2025, the national grain output and sown area increased. In 2026, the sown area is expected to remain stable or increase. The demand for compound fertilizers is relatively stable, and the demand for urea may not increase significantly in 2026 [95][103]. 3.5.4 Industrial Demand was Lackluster - In 2025, the melamine market was weak, with prices hitting new lows and production declining. In 2026, the market will face the long - term game between capacity release and weak demand [107]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2020 to 2026, urea production showed an increasing trend, while consumption and export fluctuated. In 2026, the supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to change [108][111]. 3.7 Technical Trend Analysis - In the long - term, the urea futures showed a triangular consolidation pattern, with the range of the center of gravity narrowing. The lower support is around 1600 - 1630, and the upper resistance is around 1950 - 2000 [114]. 3.8 Option Market Operation - In 2025, the urea option market was more active, with trading volume and open interest reaching new highs. In 2026, call options can be considered when spring plowing fertilizer preparation starts [120][122]. 3.9 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the urea market will maintain a high - start and high - supply trend, with agricultural demand growing and industrial demand having limited growth. The export situation may improve, but the supply - demand relationship will remain loose. The futures price may fluctuate at the bottom, with support around 1500 - 1600 and resistance around 1900 - 2000 [2][125][126]. 3.10 Industry - Related Stocks - As of December 12, 2025, stocks such as Hehua Co., Ltd. and Yuanxing Energy Co., Ltd. are related to the urea industry, with different annual price increases and decreases [127].