长江期货聚烯烃周报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,500, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - Polypropylene faces significant trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,476 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.82%. The average price of LDPE was 8,683.33 yuan/ton, down 2.43% month - on - month; the average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month - on - month; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,768.89 yuan/ton, down 3.30% month - on - month. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 282.89 yuan/ton, down 13.22% month - on - month, and the January - May spread was - 68 yuan/ton [12]. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 58 yuan; the May - September spread was - 33 yuan/ton, with a change of 13 yuan; the September - January spread was 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 71 yuan [20]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [21][22]. - Cost: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 481 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was - 176 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - Supply: This week, China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, up 0.06 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 681,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. The maintenance loss this week was 89,900 tons, down 90 tons from last week [32]. - 2025 Production Plan: Multiple companies have put into production or are planning to put into production polyethylene plants in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 5.43 million tons [35]. - Maintenance Statistics: Some enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain [36]. - Demand: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film capacity utilization rate was 46.40%, down 1.72% from last week; the PE packaging film capacity utilization rate was 49.59%, down 0.63% from last weekend; the PE pipe capacity utilization rate was 31.00%, down 0.83% from last weekend [38]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.9%, with a difference of 3.4% from the annual average level; the data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.8%, with a difference of 1.4% from the annual average level [41]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 456,500 tons, down 2,990 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.15% [44]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,332 lots, unchanged from last week [48]. Polypropylene Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [52]. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of various polypropylene - related products and other plastics showed different degrees of decline or change [54][56]. - Basis: On December 12, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,253.33 yuan/ton, down 2.51%. The PP basis was 124 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [58]. - Month - spread: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 39 yuan/ton, with a change of 56 yuan; the May - September spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan; the September - January spread was 82 yuan/ton, with a change of - 51 yuan [63]. - Cost: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [68]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 604.22 yuan/ton, down 16.45 yuan/ton from last weekend; the profit of coal - based PP was - 568.80 yuan/ton, down 52.04 yuan/ton from last weekend [73]. - Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.25%, up 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 807,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder was 71,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [75]. - Maintenance Statistics: Some polypropylene production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is mostly uncertain [78]. - Demand: This week, the average downstream capacity utilization rate was 53.99%, up 0.06%. The capacity utilization rate of plastic weaving was 44.06%, down 0.04%; the capacity utilization rate of BOPP was 62.93%, up 0.33%; the capacity utilization rate of injection molding was 58.57%, down 0.38%; the capacity utilization rate of pipes was 42.30%, unchanged [80]. - Export - Import Profit: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $268.68 per ton, down $21.72 from last week; the export profit was - $14.00 per ton, down $1.70 from last week [85]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 537,100 tons, down 4.97%. The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 1.22% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 5.69% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month [87]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,747 lots, down 15 lots from last week [95].