聚酯产业链期货周报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall polyester industry is facing a weakening trend, with开工 rates declining and product processing fees fluctuating narrowly. The terminal demand is generally weak, and the inventory pressure in some sectors is increasing [6][9]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, PX supply is expected to increase, PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation, MEG has a large increase in port inventory, and the supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip is relatively loose [6][20][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX: Supply side, some domestic and foreign devices are undergoing maintenance or restarting. The supply - demand pattern remains tight, and the profit is good. The trading strategies are unilateral (oscillating weakly), arbitrage (1 - 5 reverse arbitrage), and options (selling out - of - the - money call options) [6]. - PTA: Some maintenance devices are planned to restart, the downstream polyester sales are dull, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The trading strategies are unilateral (oscillating weakly), arbitrage (1 - 5 reverse arbitrage), and options (selling out - of - the - money call options) [6]. - MEG: Multiple domestic devices have reduced production or postponed restarting, the downstream polyester has reduced production, and the inventory has a de - stocking pressure. The trading strategies are unilateral (oscillating weakly), arbitrage (1 - 5 reverse arbitrage), and options (selling out - of - the - money call options) [6]. - PF: The short - fiber sales are weak, the demand is stable, and the processing fee is under pressure. The trading strategies are unilateral (oscillating weakly), arbitrage (wait - and - see), and options (selling out - of - the money call options) [6]. - PR: New devices are expected to be put into production, the downstream purchase rhythm is slow, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. The trading strategies are unilateral (oscillating weakly), arbitrage (wait - and - see), and options (selling out - of - the money call options) [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Polyester: The overall polyester production and sales are weak, the开工 rate continues to decline, and the product processing fee fluctuates narrowly. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of long - fiber rises [9][11][13]. - PX: Affected by the weakness of crude oil and the textile off - season, the price center of PX has declined. Some domestic and foreign devices are undergoing maintenance or restarting [20]. - PTA: Some maintenance devices are planned to restart, the PTA开工 rate is expected to increase, and the processing fee center has declined slightly [22]. - MEG: The port inventory has increased significantly, the market circulation of goods is large, and the price has continued to decline [26]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - PX: The price has declined, and the price difference and profit between varieties are presented. The demand - supply situation involves some device maintenance and restarting, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains tight [20][30][54]. - PTA: The profit analysis includes the profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX. The supply - demand situation shows that the PTA负荷 and polyester load are involved, and the inventory includes social inventory, factory raw material inventory, and warehouse receipts [61][64][66]. - MEG: The price, price difference, and profit are presented. The port inventory has increased, and the market circulation of goods is large [25][26][68]. - Polyester: The profit from long - fiber, short - fiber, bottle - chip, etc. is analyzed. The supply includes the load of long - fiber, short - fiber, bottle - chip, etc., and the demand involves the consumption situation of downstream industries such as pure - polyester yarn and fabric [87][89][93].