天然橡胶周报：年底资金风险偏好下降，橡胶维持窄幅震荡-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the year, the risk preference of funds decreases, and natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Currently, the raw material price has strong support, the mid - stream inventory increases, the downstream demand remains stable, the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level, and the short - term commodity market sentiment is weak [3][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. In domestic production areas, Yunnan is entering the full - stop period with stable raw material prices, while Hainan has reduced raw material output due to rain, and the purchase price has been adjusted down. In Thailand, geopolitical tensions and increased rainfall in the south have led the raw material price to first decline and then rise. In Vietnam, the weather has returned to normal, and the price of 3L rubber has remained strong [3] - Demand: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased, but it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next cycle. Most enterprises have slow shipment and may control production or reduce load [3] - Inventory: It is bearish. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased by 2.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.9%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also increased [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have both narrowed slightly [3] - Profit: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - Commodity Market: It is neutral. Near the end of the year, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the domestic commodity market shows a weak performance [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on NR and short on RU [3] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: At the end of the year, the risk preference of funds decreased, and rubber maintained a narrow - range oscillation. As of December 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,230 yuan/ton, up 1.10% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,330 yuan/ton, up 2.41% week - on - week [7] - Spot Market: Spot prices rebounded slightly [10] - Position: RU positions decreased, while NR positions increased. The RU - NR spread narrowed, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread strengthened [24][32] 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in the Thai production area decreased [39] - Upstream Raw Materials: The glue price was stable, and the cup - rubber price increased [50] - Main Producing Countries' Output: In October, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 9.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.35% [64] - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In the first 10 months, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 7.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.55% [77] - China's Imports: From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 17.27%. In November, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, an 11% increase year - on - year [87] - Mid - stream Inventory: China's social inventory increased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a 1.9% increase month - on - month [100][108] - Downstream Tire Demand: Tire operating rates increased slightly. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next cycle [109][115] - Downstream Tire Inventory: The available inventory days of tires in Shandong decreased [116] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In November, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, while the sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [120][130] - Tire Exports: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons, a 3.8% increase year - on - year, but the cumulative growth rate narrowed [131] - Cost - Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber turned positive, while the delivery profit of full - milk rubber was in the red [139]