Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-15 05:29Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector compared to the overall market performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a gradual acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the pig farming sector as pig prices remain at a low and fluctuating level [2][3]. - The report highlights that the online sales of pet food have shown a year-on-year increase of 17% for October and November, suggesting a resilient market despite previous adjustments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index decreased by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the CSI 300 index. The top five gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), Shengtai Bio (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%), while the top five losers included Xiwang Food (-15.4%) and Haili Bio (-13.0%) [2][3]. Pig Farming - The average selling price of three-way cross pigs was reported at 11.54 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.9%. Losses are expected to continue, with self-breeding operations reporting losses exceeding 120 CNY per head for various scales [2][3]. - The report indicates that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, driven by increasing losses and seasonal factors affecting confidence in the market [2][3]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth. Notable brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported significant increases in their sales [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has seen a slight rebound, with the average selling price at 3.33 CNY/chick, indicating stable pricing since September. The report suggests that the supply remains ample, which will be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][3]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown slight increases, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY/kg, while wholesale beef prices decreased slightly to 66.17 CNY/kg [2][3].