光期研究2026年有色金属策略报告-20251215

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The report does not provide an explicit investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: In 2026, LME copper prices are expected to show a trend of "trend - driven increase led by supply - demand gap + phased fluctuations driven by funds". The price center is likely to rise, with an expected annual average of around $11,500/ton, a high of over $13,500/ton, and a low of around $10,000/ton. Domestic copper prices are predicted to be relatively stable, ranging from 82,000 yuan/ton to 108,000 yuan/ton [7][158]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation in 2026, with a price range of 2,000 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to rise, with a price range of 20,000 - 28,000 yuan/ton [165][167]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: In 2026, the supply - demand surplus of nickel is expected to increase, with a price range of 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel prices are expected to be in the range of 11,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [288]. 3. Summary of Each Section Copper - 2025 Price Review: LME copper prices fluctuated with an upward - moving center, ranging from $8,105.5/ton to $11,334/ton, with an annual average settlement price of about $9,834/ton, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. SHFE copper prices ranged from 71,320 yuan/ton to 89,920 yuan/ton, with an annual average settlement price of 80,485 yuan/ton, a 5.5% increase [7][10]. - 2026 Market Analysis: - Macro - environment: The global macro - environment will feature "loose monetary policy + stable growth", providing a foundation for high - level copper prices. The first half of 2026 offers more opportunities, while risks may emerge in the second half [153]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances will persist in 2026, especially in the first half. Demand is expected to grow in multiple areas. The distorted global visible inventory structure may further magnify the impact of the supply - demand gap [155][156]. - Funds: Loose liquidity, a tight supply - demand balance, and inventory structure issues will prompt overseas speculative funds and the industrial sector to drive copper prices upward. However, excessive price fluctuations may lead to regulatory measures [158]. Aluminum - Alumina - 2025 Review: Alumina prices fluctuated due to domestic supply disturbances and overseas policy sentiments, with an initial sharp decline, followed by rebounds and subsequent declines [172]. - 2026 Outlook: The supply side will face long - term domestic ore restrictions, increasing dependence on imported ores, and uncertain shipping schedules. The demand side will be supported by the high - base and capped electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the export window is expected to remain open. The cost side will limit the downward price movement. Overall, alumina will remain in an oversupply situation, with a price range of 2,000 - 2,900 yuan/ton [164][165]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - 2025 Review: Electrolytic aluminum prices remained high and stable in the long - term, with short - term fluctuations driven by Sino - US tariff policies [175]. - 2026 Outlook: The supply side will see a shift towards a pattern of decreasing domestic production and increasing overseas production. The demand side will experience a demand structure adjustment, with the focus shifting to policy - driven sectors. The cost side will see a long - term low electricity price center, and the cost structure may be reshaped. The overall price is expected to rise, with a range of 20,000 - 28,000 yuan/ton [166][167]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - 2025 Price Review: Nickel prices fluctuated widely in Q1, weakened in Q2, oscillated horizontally in Q3, and rebounded in Q4. Stainless steel prices mostly followed nickel prices [286][290]. - 2026 Supply - Demand Pattern - Global Primary Nickel Supply: In 2025, global primary nickel supply increased by 8% to 3.81 million nickel tons. In 2026, it is expected to increase by 7% to 4.085 million nickel tons, with an increasing supply - demand surplus [287][410]. - Nickel Ore: Indonesia adjusted its nickel ore policies, and the actual release of nickel ore quotas in 2025 was less than expected. In 2026, quotas are expected to narrow [287][309]. - Class I Nickel: The domestic Class I nickel market faced a situation of slow - expanding supply and weak demand, with an increasing surplus. Globally, the supply increased while the demand remained stable, also leading to an increasing surplus [287][336]. - Class II Nickel: The market share of domestic and overseas enterprises in the Class II nickel market has been squeezed by Indonesia. Most planned projects have been suspended or postponed. The stainless - steel demand lacks bright spots [287]. - Nickel Salt: Cobalt prices and new capacity drove the accelerated production of MHP, while the production of high - grade nickel matte slowed down. The profit of nickel sulfate is expected to be suppressed by rising raw material prices and weakening demand [287]. - Valuation and Price Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and stainless - steel prices are expected to be in the range of 11,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [288].