光期研究2026年度黑色策略报告-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of steel products is expected to improve, and the center of steel prices may move up. The production of crude steel will continue to decline slightly, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing will pick up, and exports will remain at a high level. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal is expected to be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [6][7][11][12]. - The supply - demand balance of iron ore will remain loose in 2026. Overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, and domestic iron ore supply will also increase. However, the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress. Domestic pig iron production is expected to decline, and overseas demand will increase slightly. The operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [121][122][123]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke will remain relatively loose in 2026. For coking coal, domestic production and imports are expected to increase, while demand may decrease. The operating range of coking coal futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton. For coke, production is expected to decrease, exports may fall, and imports may rise. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [228][229]. - In 2026, the oversupply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to change. For ferromanganese silicon, new production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly, and demand will remain stable. For ferrosilicon, production capacity will remain in excess, costs will provide support, and upward drivers will be limited [322]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 2025 Market Review - The domestic steel market in 2025 showed a trend of "lower price center and significantly narrowed volatility". Steel prices mainly fluctuated and declined throughout the year, except for a significant rebound from June to July. The overall demand was weak, with real estate being the main drag, while plate demand was stronger than long - product demand. Overseas demand was strong, and steel and billet exports reached new highs [14][23][38][40]. - Long - process steel mills had relatively good profits in 2025, mainly due to the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices and the adjustment of product structure by steel mills. Short - process steel mills continued to suffer losses [55][56]. 2026 Market Analysis - Demand: In 2026, policy guidance for steel demand will be positive. Real estate investment and sales are expected to decline at a slower pace, infrastructure investment is expected to increase slightly, and manufacturing investment is expected to recover moderately [7][62][72]. - Supply: The policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2026, and it is expected that crude steel production will decline slightly, and the supply of steel products will better match demand [6][94][96]. - Import and Export: In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level but will decline from the peak. The net export of crude steel may decrease compared to 2024 [10][101][118]. - Cost: In 2026, the supply of iron ore and coking coal will be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [11][110][114]. 3.2 Iron Ore 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the supply - demand of iron ore was marginally loose, and the price fluctuations throughout the year were significantly narrowed. There were two obvious price increases, and the basis was at a low level in the past five years. The prices of different iron ore varieties showed different trends [124][129][132]. - The supply increment mainly came from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, and the production of domestic mines increased less than expected. Overseas demand decreased slightly, while domestic iron ore demand was better than expected [142][158][179]. 2026 Market Outlook - Supply: In 2026, overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, with the main increments coming from Australia, Guinea, and Brazil. The supply of domestic iron ore is also expected to increase, but the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress [121][161][177]. - Demand: Overseas demand is expected to increase slightly, while domestic pig iron production is expected to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore will remain loose, and the operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [122][123][203]. - Inventory: Port inventory first decreased and then increased, and steel mills maintained low - inventory management [209][215]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. The price of coking coal was mainly driven by the supply side, with a sharp decline from January to May, a sharp increase from June to August, wide - range fluctuations from August to October, and another significant decline in November [231][232][235]. - The production of coking coal showed a pattern of "loose in the first half of the year and tight in the second half". The production of coke was adjusted periodically according to coking profits [246][277]. 2026 Market Outlook - Coking Coal: In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to reach 483 million tons, and imports are expected to increase to 120 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by 8 million tons to about 585 million tons. The overall supply - demand of coking coal will face certain pressure, and the operating range of futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton [228][314][317]. - Coke: In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease to 495 million tons, exports may fall to 7.2 million tons, and imports may rise to 0.8 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by about 2.8 million tons. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [229][314][318]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the futures prices of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed similar trends, with the amplitude of ferromanganese silicon being slightly larger. The prices were mainly affected by factors such as manganese ore inventory, terminal demand, and the "anti - involution" policy [326][327]. 2026 Market Outlook - Ferromanganese Silicon: In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon will remain relatively loose, and prices will mainly fluctuate. New production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly. Demand is expected to remain basically the same [322][397]. - Ferrosilicon: In 2026, the over - capacity situation of ferrosilicon will continue, with cost support and limited upward drivers. Production capacity will remain in excess, and demand will change little year - on - year [322][399].