美国12月FOMC会议点评：中性降息落地，技术性扩表重启

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-3.50%[2] - The decision reflects a shift to a neutral monetary policy stance, with the committee indicating that the banking system's reserve levels are now adequate[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% and for 2026 to 2.3%, indicating a baseline scenario of a soft landing for the U.S. economy[14] - Unemployment is projected to gradually decrease from the current rate of 4.5% to 4.2% by 2028, suggesting a stable labor market despite recent cooling[17] Inflation and Employment - Inflation has risen since earlier this year but remains somewhat elevated, with the core PCE expected to decline to 2.5% by 2026[17] - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing, reflecting concerns about job market stability[4] Internal Disagreements - There is significant internal division within the FOMC, with three dissenting votes during the recent meeting, the highest since 2019, indicating increasing disagreement on policy direction[5] - The distribution of rate expectations has become more dispersed, reflecting differing views among committee members on the appropriate policy path[5] Asset Purchase Program - The Fed will restart short-term Treasury purchases at an initial pace of approximately $40 billion per month to maintain liquidity in the banking system[6] - This action is characterized as a technical operation, separate from the broader monetary policy stance[6] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to implement two additional rate cuts in 2026, likely in March and July, influenced by potential changes in FOMC leadership and political considerations[9] - The upcoming leadership transition may introduce "political rate cuts," aligning with election cycle pressures[10]