资产配置全球跟踪2025年12月第2期：资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨

Asset Overview - Global risk appetite has significantly cooled, with precious metals leading the gains. During the week of December 8-12, global equity markets turned to decline, although some emerging markets performed relatively well. The correlation between A-shares and government bonds has returned to a negative degree of 0.5 [1][8]. Investment Highlights Cross-Asset Analysis - The overall risk appetite has decreased globally, with precious metals showing strong performance while industrial metals and oil prices have seen significant pullbacks. The US dollar index continues its downward trend, and the Chinese yuan has slightly strengthened, leading to a general recovery in the domestic bond market [8][12]. Equity Markets - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with the ChiNext Index leading gains. The MSCI Global Index turned to a decline of 0.2%, with a notable performance divergence where emerging markets outperformed developed and frontier markets, and Europe outperformed Asia and North America. A-shares saw a slight increase, with the Wande All A Index rising by 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.7% [20][23]. Bond Markets - The domestic bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward overall. The 10Y-3M yield spread has marginally widened, indicating a "bull steep" characteristic. The 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.12%, while the 3-month AAA-rated note yield increased by 5.1 basis points to 0.3% [34][35]. Commodity and Currency Analysis - Commodity prices have generally declined, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 12, the S&P GSCI and CRB commodity indices fell by 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Year-to-date, only four commodities have recorded gains, with gold and silver increasing by 63.9% and 112%, respectively. COMEX gold inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, while copper inventory has risen for 40 weeks [53][54]. The US dollar index fell by 0.6%, with the euro and pound appreciating against the dollar [53].