光期研究2026年度宏观金融策略报告-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026, with new economic drivers emerging to offset the drag from the real estate sector [217][218]. - Globally, the policy in 2026 will revolve around the shift of policy focus, the return of fiscal expansion, and the maintenance of monetary easing, forming a new pattern of "policy re - balance" [94]. - In the bond market, the bullish expectation is loosening in 2026. With the reasonable and abundant capital, the stable economy, the moderate rise of inflation, and the cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound [176][270][271]. - In the stock index futures market, new quality productive forces will still be the core driver. The technology theme market may continue, and if the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the style switch between large - and small - cap stocks may occur [282]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Go with the Trend - Economic Aggregate: Considering the structural constraints in the next decade, China's potential economic growth rate may decline year by year. To connect with the 2035 vision, the GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5% in the first three years of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8]. - Economic Structure - Consumption: The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate. China's household consumption rate has room for improvement, and the government will take measures such as income increase, burden reduction, and supply - side reform to boost consumption [13][24]. - Industry: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing scientific and technological self - reliance. New policies will promote high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and the development of new quality productive forces [30]. - Demand Growth: The driving force of economic growth is shifting from investment to consumption. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the central government needs to increase fiscal leverage to solve the problems in real estate inventory reduction. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment need to maintain reasonable growth and improve efficiency [32][35]. - Inflation: With demand - side stimulus for consumption, supply - side "anti - involution" to improve efficiency, and the central bank's support for a reasonable rise in prices, inflation is expected to bottom out and rise in 2026 [7][89]. Big - Category Assets: Fiscal and Monetary Combinations Take Effect - Global Macro Review: In 2025, the global macro - economy fluctuated sharply under the influence of "Trump Policy 2.0". In 2026, the global policy will focus on the shift of policy focus, fiscal expansion, and monetary easing [95][103]. - Overseas Outlook - United States: In 2026, the policy focus will shift to domestic issues. The economy is expected to recover moderately, with potential interest - rate cuts. However, fiscal sustainability remains a concern [120][133]. - Eurozone: In 2026, the ECB's significant interest - rate cuts may end. The eurozone economy will rely on fiscal expansion and external investment, and the growth rate is expected to be around 1.2% [134][135]. - Japan: In 2026, Japan will implement a combination of fiscal expansion and moderate interest - rate hikes. If it can balance fiscal and monetary policies, the economy may achieve a stable growth [140][141]. - 2026 Big - Category Assets Outlook: In 2026, with the decline of global economic policy uncertainty, the risk appetite of the market is likely to continue to recover. Risk assets such as stocks may rise, while the prices of safe - haven assets may adjust. The demand for commodities will be affected by the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus [161]. Treasury Bond Futures: Increasingly Negative Factors, Shaky Bullish Expectations - 2025 Market Review: In 2025, the bond market showed a sideways and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as tight funds, tariff disturbances, the rise of risk appetite due to "anti - involution", and the decline of interest - rate cut expectations [176][183]. - 2026 Market Analysis Logic - Capital: The central bank's liquidity management system will ensure that the capital in 2026 remains reasonably abundant [233][235]. - Economy: The macro - policy will continue to support stable growth, and the economy will remain stable [199][270]. - Inflation: With the promotion of consumption and "anti - involution" policies, CPI is expected to rise moderately, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow [262][265]. - Monetary Policy: The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, but interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, with an expected cut range of 10 - 20BP in 2026 [242]. - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy will remain active in 2026, with an expected narrow - sense budget deficit rate of around 4% and a broad - sense budget deficit rate of 8.3% [258][259]. - Market Outlook: In 2026, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound. The reasonable and abundant capital is a support, while the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts pose constraints [271][273]. Stock Index Futures: New Quality Productive Forces Remain the Core Driver - 2025 Market Review: In 2025, the A - share market rose significantly, mainly driven by the technology theme. The overseas and domestic markets both contributed to the rise, but the cycle and consumption sectors were still under pressure [282][283][294]. - 2026 Market Outlook - Global Technology Market: There are debates about whether the current technology market has a bubble. However, the upstream manufacturing enterprises have stable performance expectations, the Fed is likely to continue to cut interest rates in the first quarter, and the Chinese technology industry also has fundamental support [337][346][350]. - Style Switch: The style switch from growth to value is not likely to occur in the first half of 2026. If the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the ROE of the stock index may stabilize and rise, and the style switch may happen [358][367][368]. - Futures and Options Market Features - Basis: The basis of small - cap index futures is at a high level, and the roll - over cost has also increased. The basis of large - cap index futures is mainly affected by dividends [372]. - Volatility: The historical and implied volatilities of the index were high in 2025. At the beginning of 2026, strategies for increasing volatility should be considered [383]. - Market Strategies: In 2026, the excess returns of index - enhancement and neutral strategies are relatively optimistic, but attention should be paid to the potential beta retracement [389].