Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-15 05:37Report Title - The report is titled "2026 Strategy Report for New Energy Varieties" by Everbright Futures Research Institute, dated December 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the lithium resource market will show a pattern of strong supply and demand, with a price center likely to rise to 100,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, but price elasticity may increase [7][8] - The industrial silicon market will continue to see the global supply center shift to China, with domestic supply showing a pattern of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and prices will be anchored to costs, with a reference range of 7,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [140][265] - The polysilicon market will enter the second stage of capacity clearance. Marginal supply and demand will turn into a tight - balance structure, and prices will show a range - bound characteristic, with a reference range of 46,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [142][270] Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium: Smooth Sailing and a Turnaround 2025 Market Review - The price of carbonate lithium in 2025 showed a trend of "first declining, then rising, with the bottom rising and fluctuating upwards". The price was affected by factors such as policy, supply, and demand at different stages [6][9] 2026 Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply: Global lithium resource supply is expected to increase by 29% year - on - year to 2.142 million tons of LCE in 2026 [7] - Demand: In 2025, lithium battery demand may increase by 35% year - on - year to 1,963 GWh, and is expected to increase by 23 - 32% year - on - year to 2,421 - 2,589 GWh in 2026 [7] - Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025, the surplus narrowed to 97,000 tons of LCE. In 2026, under different demand growth rate expectations, the lithium resource surplus will be in the range of [90,000, 218,000] tons of LCE [7] Price Outlook - In 2026, the price center may rise to 100,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, but price elasticity may increase. If the price remains above 105,000 yuan/ton, it may lead to supply - side responses and test the demand side [8] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: United Efforts and a Bright Future 2025 Market Review - Industrial silicon showed a pattern of alternating rises and falls in the resonance of macro and micro factors. Polysilicon showed a trend of first declining and then rising [140][145] 2026 Market Analysis Logic - Industrial Silicon - Supply: The global supply center will continue to shift to China, and domestic supply will show a pattern of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The possibility of new production capacity plans for postponed projects is very low, and the industry will enter a structural adjustment cycle [140][161] - Demand: The photovoltaic terminal will shift from a high - speed development stage to a stable adjustment stage, and the growth rate of polysilicon capacity will turn negative. The overseas restocking cycle is coming to an end, and the domestic terminal is hard to see an increase. The growth rate of the organic silicon industry will gradually weaken, and the growth rate of the aluminum alloy industry will slow down [140][183] - Polysilicon - Supply: The industry will enter the second stage of capacity clearance. New capacity is almost impossible to achieve due to strict energy - consumption indicator control, and the progress of the platform acquisition plan is not optimistic [142][205] - Demand: As the focus of the 14th Five - Year Plan shifts from the power supply end to the energy storage end, the domestic new installation volume will tend to decrease. Component exports face policy tightening and cost pressure. The overseas market shows a new competitive pattern of regional differentiation and policy linkage [142][218] Price Outlook - Industrial Silicon: The price reference range is 7,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short at high prices following the production increase rhythm [265][267] - Polysilicon: The price reference range is 46,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to try long at low prices within the range following policies and industry dynamics [270][271]