长江期货养殖产业周报-20251215

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on the Aquaculture Industry - Report Date: December 15, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 (Practice), Z0020750 (Investment Consultation) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Pigs: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the futures price is oscillating. In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability, and in the long - term, the price is expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed [5][57]. - Eggs: The inventory base is still large, and the futures market shows near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - Corn: There is still selling pressure to be digested, and the futures market should be cautiously chased up. In the short term, selling pressure needs to be released, and in the long - term, the cost has strong support but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [8][101]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Aquaculture Viewpoints Summary Pigs - Spot - Futures Market: As of December 12, the national spot price was 11.34 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from last week. The futures price of live pigs 2503 reached 11,325 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week. The 03 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price first declined and then rose [5][14][57]. - Supply Side: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the de - capacity accelerated in October. Before the first half of next year, the supply will remain high. From December to the first quarter of next year, the supply pressure is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in December increased month - on - month [5][18][57]. - Demand Side: The weekly slaughter rate and volume continued to increase, the white - strip pork price rose slightly, the terminal consumption increased seasonally, and the fresh - sales rate continued to rise. However, the frozen - product inventory is high, which will suppress supply in the future [5][57]. - Cost Side: The weekly piglet price rose slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit loss narrowed [5][57]. - Weekly Conclusion: In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability; in the long term, the price in the second half of next year is expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][57]. - Strategy Suggestion: For short - term near - month contracts, consider short - selling on rebounds; for long - term far - month contracts, be cautiously bullish, and industries can hedge on rebounds above profits [5][57]. Eggs - Spot - Futures Market: As of December 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of the main egg 2601 contract was 3,077 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 387 yuan/500 kg, up 90 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price rose slightly, and the futures market was volatile at the bottom [7][63][81]. - Supply Side: The number of newly - opened laying hens in December decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the supply pressure weakened marginally, but the inventory base was still large. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market will experience a bottom - grinding process [7][81]. - Demand Side: The terminal demand lacks festival support, but the cold weather stimulates channel inventory demand. The high vegetable prices and the low - priced eggs drive the terminal substitution demand [7][81]. - Weekly Conclusion: In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price lacks driving force; in the long term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - Strategy Suggestion: For the 01 contract, breeding enterprises can hedge on rebounds; in the medium term, if there is large - scale culling around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the post - festival supply pressure; in the long term, pay attention to external factors for passive de - capacity [7][81]. Corn - Spot - Futures Market: As of December 12, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2601 contract was 2,242 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 73 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price stagnated and slightly declined [8][86][101]. - Supply Side: The national grass - roots grain sales progress was 40%, which was relatively fast. The import of international grains remained low. The inventory in the north and south ports decreased month - on - month [8][101]. - Demand Side: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports rigid feed demand. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the wheat substitution may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to high inventory and low profit [8][101]. - Weekly Conclusion: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and the price rebound height is limited; in the long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose [8][101]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short term, be cautious about chasing up the futures market, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [8][101]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis - Pigs: It includes data such as slaughter weight, fat - standard price difference, slaughter rate, fresh - sales rate, frozen - product inventory rate, pig - grain ratio, and breeding profit [10]. - Eggs: It contains data on egg prices, hatching egg utilization rate, culled chicken sales, egg sales volume, inventory days, and breeding profit [64]. - Corn: It involves data on corn prices, grain - selling progress, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise start - up rate, and processing profit [87].