Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-12-15 06:03Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's Nickel - Related Projects - In 2025, several MHP projects are planned or in operation, such as the 2 - capacity Green Eco (IMIP) by GEM, which was put into production in March 2025, and the 6.7 - capacity Blue Flame (WedaBay - IWIP) by Tsingshan + Merdeka, to be put into production in 2025Q4. There are also high - matte nickel projects like the 6 - capacity Zhongqing New Energy Phase II Expansion by Zhongwei from 2025Q1 - Q2 [40]. - For NPI projects in 2025 - 2026, PT Ceria Nugraha Indotama (Ceria) Kolaka has a planned capacity of 5.56 in 2025Q2, and the Dong Kalimantan Steel Phase II was postponed to 2025Q1 with a capacity of 1.9 [43]. - Regarding refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia from 2025 - 2026, China's total capacity is expected to increase from 46.18 in 2024 to 58.58 in 2025 and 67.78 in 2026, while Indonesia's will rise from 10 in 2024 to 13 in 2025 and 19 in 2026 [44]. Nickel Industry Import and Export Data - From January - October 2025, nickel ore imports were 4,682,830.3 tons with a year - on - year increase of 11.8192%, and the annual cumulative imports were 36,885,298.93 tons with a 11.1072% increase. Nickel pig iron imports were 905,144.28 tons with a 31.7213% increase, and the annual cumulative was 9,210,532.888 tons with a 30.6491% increase [64]. - Refined nickel imports were 9,741.246 tons with a 0.594038% increase, and the annual cumulative was 195,124.014 tons with a 178.853% increase. Nickel's wet - process intermediate imports were 151,253.93 tons with a 26.2993% increase, and the annual cumulative was 1,530,353.727 tons with a 29.3579% increase [64]. Market Data and Trends - The LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,818 tons from October to November 2025, with China's inventory decreasing by 1,476 tons, and Australia's by 666 tons [81]. - In terms of the growth rate of the nickel industry's upstream and downstream from 2023 - 2025, MHP had a 70.28% growth in 2023, reaching 310,000 nickel tons in 2024 with a 94% growth, and is expected to reach 440,000 nickel tons in 2025 [97]. - The global nickel supply - demand balance shows a surplus, with the surplus increasing from 17.9 in 2024 to 21 in 2025 and 26 in 2026. The global stainless - steel market also shows a certain supply - demand pattern, with China's apparent consumption of stainless steel increasing from 3,249 in 2024 to 3,370 in 2025 and 3,500 in 2026 [106][107]. Stock Performance - As of December 11, 2025, among downstream stainless - steel related stocks, Taiyuan Iron & Steel Stainless Steel (000825.SZ) had a 30.42% annual increase, while Hals (002615.SZ) had a - 0.26% decrease [129]. - Among upstream and mid - stream nickel - related stocks, Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) had a 120.69% annual increase, and Hengli Industry (000622.SZ) had a - 92.54% decrease [129].