海外市场周观察（1208-1214）：如何看待港股流动性收紧？

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile pattern this week, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.42%. Factors such as the expected pressure from the unlocking of restricted shares in December and a slowdown in southbound capital inflows contributed to liquidity pressure [9] - The total amount raised from initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong has significantly increased since May, creating a continuous liquidity "drain" effect. The expected unlocking of restricted shares worth HKD 124.1 billion in December has intensified market liquidity pressure [9] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, coinciding with a similar rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which led to a rebound in the Hang Seng Index, closing up 1.75% on Friday [9] Group 2 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance this week, with NYMEX platinum (+6.59%) and COMEX silver (+4.70%) leading the gains, while NYMEX light crude oil (-4.34%) and IPE Brent oil (-4.13%) saw the largest declines [32] - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% and initiated a short-term U.S. Treasury bond purchase program. Fed Chairman Powell indicated a dovish stance, highlighting the dual pressures of inflation risks and a weakening labor market [10] - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week, and the current USD/HKD exchange rate remains stable, suggesting that the HKMA may not need to significantly withdraw liquidity in the near term [10] Group 3 - The global equity markets showed varied performance, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (+1.64%) posting the highest gain, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.62%) and S&P 500 (-0.63%) recorded the largest declines [36] - In the commodity market, NYMEX platinum saw the highest increase, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the most significant drop [51] - The liquidity landscape showed mixed trends, with long-term interest rates fluctuating across different countries. For instance, India's 10-year bond yield rose to 6.60%, while China's fell to 1.84% [56]