原木周报（LG）：原木期货在交割月前出现下跌-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - Demand: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - Inventory: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - Valuation: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - Investment View: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - Main Data Summary: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - Open Interest: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - Spot Market: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - Shipment Volume: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - Import Cost and Profit: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - Inventory: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - Outbound Volume: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - Timber Price and Processing Profit: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].