Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-15 07:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][42]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a significant acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends a left-side investment strategy focusing on the pig farming sector [2][36]. - Pig prices are at a bottom and continue to fluctuate, with losses widening. The average loss for self-breeding sows is reported to exceed 120 CNY per head [2][36]. - The pet food sector shows continued industry vitality, with online sales growth of 17% year-on-year for October and November [2][36]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2]. - Top gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), BioShares (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%) [2][8]. Pig Farming - The report highlights that pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with losses continuing to expand. The average loss for self-breeding sows is approximately 128.3 CNY per head for those with fewer than 50 sows and 146.5 CNY for those with 5,000 to 10,000 sows [2][36]. - The report suggests that the ongoing losses and the seasonal decline in pig prices may catalyze a faster capacity reduction in the industry [2][36]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [2][36]. - Notable brands such as GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co. reported significant growth in sales, with GuaiBao Pet achieving a 40% increase [2][36]. Chicken Farming - The report notes a slight rebound in prices for broiler chickens, with the average selling price for white feather broiler chicks at 3.33 CNY per chick, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.22% [2][36]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of white chickens remains abundant, which is expected to be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][36]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown a slight increase, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY per kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [2][36].