2025年11月经济数据点评兼债市观点：主要指标进一步回落-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main economic indicators in November 2025 further declined, with the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods all showing a downward trend. However, the month - on - month growth rate of industrial added value increased, and the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment narrowed. [1][2] - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market. The expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. In the long term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but attention should be paid to the structure. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On December 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for November 2025, including the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size of 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to November of 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November of 1.3%. [1][6][9] Comment Scale - above industrial production: year - on - year growth rate decreased but month - on - month growth rate increased - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from October. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.44%, an increase from October. [2][6] - Among the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rate of the mining industry increased, while those of the manufacturing industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased. [2][6] January - November fixed - asset investment: cumulative year - on - year decline widened, but the month - on - month decline in November narrowed - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, with the decline widening. The month - on - month growth rate in November was - 1.03%, with the decline narrowing. [2][13] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment from January to November all decreased, and the year - on - year growth rates of the three sub - items in November were all weak. [17] Total retail sales of consumer goods: year - on - year growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the seasonal average - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, a decrease from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%, weaker than the seasonal average and lower than the same - period levels in 2023 and 2024. [2][18] - The year - on - year growth rates of different types of consumer goods all decreased in November compared with the previous month. [2][18] Bond Market Views Interest - rate bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation. The short - end yield has fluctuated little and declined steadily, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on an upward trend, and the Treasury bond yield curve has steepened significantly. [3][22] - With the current loose capital situation and the weak fundamental trend, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market, and the expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. [3][22] Convertible bonds - Since the beginning of 2025 (as of December 12), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 16.5%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index was + 21.8%. The performance of the convertible bond market was weaker than that of the equity market. [3][31] - Against the background of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market is stronger than the supply and difficult to change, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long term, and more attention should be paid to the structure. [3][31]