利率债周报：债市小幅反弹，收益率曲线延续陡峭化态势-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly, with the yield curve continuing to steepen. Affected by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the bond market was bullish from Monday to Thursday, but turned weak on Friday due to concerns about bond supply pressure. Overall, long - term bond yields declined, and short - term bond yields declined more than long - term ones, resulting in a wider term spread. [3] - This week, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite the weak fundamentals shown by November's economic data, the market reaction has been dull. With factors such as year - end profit - taking by institutions, the upcoming implementation of new regulations on public fund sales, expected increase in nominal GDP growth rate, and the stock - bond ratio, market sentiment remains cautious. [3] Summary by Sections 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market warmed up last week, with long - term bond yields declining slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09% for the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.37bp compared to the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to widen. [4] - On December 8, the bond market was weak in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon after the Politburo meeting mentioned a "moderately loose monetary policy". The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.19bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.02%. [4] - On December 9, after the Politburo meeting clarified the "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2026, the bond market oscillated bullishly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.74bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.12%. [4] - On December 10, the release of worse - than - expected November PPI data and loose funds continued to boost the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.06%. [4] - On December 11, the Central Economic Work Conference's statement on maintaining liquidity drove the bond market to continue to recover. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09%. [4] - On December 12, concerns about bond supply pressure led to a weak bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly by 0.08bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.13%. [4][5] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 97 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 19 compared to the previous week. The issuance volume was 12959 billion, a significant increase of 8652 billion, and the net financing was 3953 billion, an increase of 4751 billion. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds increased significantly, while that of policy - bank bonds and local bonds decreased. The net financing of all three types of bonds increased. [12] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, export growth rebounded unexpectedly, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, 7.0 percentage points faster than in October. Import growth was 1.9%, 0.9 percentage points faster than in October. [14] - The Politburo meeting on December 8 analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work, affirming the current economic situation and setting goals for next year. It is estimated that the 2025 GDP growth target will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%. [14] - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to rising vegetable prices and international gold prices. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline due to a higher base. [14][15] - In November, new RMB loans were 3900 billion, 1900 billion less than the same period last year, mainly due to weak domestic and external demand. New social financing was 24885 billion, 1597 billion more than the same period last year, mainly driven by increased corporate bond financing. [16] - The Central Economic Work Conference from December 10 - 11 set the tone for 2026's macro - policies, maintaining continuity and stability. It is expected that the low - price situation will ease, and there is room for macro - policies to stimulate growth. [16] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed mixed trends. Blast furnace operating rates and daily hot - metal production declined, while asphalt plant operating rates and semi - steel tire operating rates increased. [18] - From the demand side, the BDI index dropped significantly, the CCFI index rebounded slightly, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded slightly. [18] - In terms of prices, pork prices continued to decline slightly, and most commodity prices fell, including steel and oil, while copper prices rose. [18] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market investment last week was 47 billion. [30] - R007 and DR007 both increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit decreased slightly, and the discount rates of national and joint - stock banks' direct bills increased. [31] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio increased significantly. [31][32]