海外宏观周报：美联储如期降息，关注本周日本央行议息会议-20251215

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]