近期市场反馈及思考8：论债市定价权的转移

Core Insights - The macro narrative shift is leading to a gradual transfer of pricing power in the bond market, particularly for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, from trading desks to allocation desks [6][11] - The micro supply-demand contradiction has intensified the shift of pricing power for long-duration assets from trading desks to allocation desks, influenced by fiscal supply being long versus monetary supply being short [12] - The transfer of pricing power suggests that trading funds should focus on short to medium-term strategies, while allocation funds should look for appropriate buying points after adjustments [13] Group 1: Pricing Power in the Bond Market - The pricing power of long-term bonds has shifted from trading desks to allocation desks due to changes in macroeconomic narratives and increased participation from trading institutions [11] - The demand structure for long-duration assets has changed, with banks and insurance companies becoming more passive in their bond purchases, leading to a weaker demand for long-term bonds [12] Group 2: Policy Tools and Market Environment - The concept of "flexibly and efficiently using various policy tools" emphasizes timing and effectiveness rather than the speed of implementation [15][16] - The liquidity environment in Q1 2026 is expected to be stable and low, contrasting sharply with the tightening seen in Q1 2025 [17] Group 3: Effective Strategies in the Bond Market - The strategy of "carry and leverage" is expected to outperform duration strategies in 2026, indicating a shift from seeking returns through duration to seeking returns through coupon and leverage [19] - The investment style of amortized cost bond funds has shifted from interest rate bonds to credit bonds, particularly supporting high-quality credit bonds with maturities of 2-5 years [20][21] Group 4: Credit Bond ETF Dynamics - The narrowing of the yield spread between credit bond ETF constituent and non-constituent bonds is influenced by banks redeeming credit bond ETFs, affecting the valuation of constituent bonds [23] - The upcoming regulatory changes in public fund sales fees may reshape the demand structure for credit bonds, potentially weakening the pricing power of bond funds [25][27] Group 5: Convertible Bonds - The odds of non-redeemed convertible bonds remain promising, especially with limited supply and manageable risks in the equity market [28] - The demand for convertible bonds is expected to persist due to the higher allocation limits for absolute return funds compared to equity allocations [29]