中央经济工作会议解读：稳预期、育新能、化风险

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, indicating a shift in focus from "demand insufficiency" to a more precise diagnosis of economic challenges[4] - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, providing a foundation for market confidence during the transition period[4] Policy Framework - The policy framework aims for a balance between short-term growth stabilization and long-term structural reforms, utilizing a "cross-cycle" systemic approach[4] - Fiscal policy will maintain a deficit rate of around 4.0% in 2026 to counteract downward pressures in real estate and local government finances[7] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing nominal GDP growth and improving corporate credit fundamentals, with a flexible approach to tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[9] Key Tasks - The meeting outlined eight key tasks, focusing on nurturing new growth drivers and resolving existing risks[11] - A "rural and urban resident income increase plan" will be implemented to boost consumption and stabilize the income of a large flexible employment group[12] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and optimizing special bond usage to counteract declining fixed asset investment growth, which recorded a -0.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters[13] Innovation and Reform - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in major urban areas aims to enhance regional development and innovation ecosystems[14] - The meeting stressed the need to reduce institutional transaction costs and credit costs, addressing "involution" competition and promoting a unified market[15] Risk Management - The meeting proposed a dual approach to real estate risk management, focusing on "de-stocking" and controlling new supply while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing[16] - Local government debt management will adopt a comprehensive and categorized approach to mitigate operational debt risks, indicating a shift towards more refined debt management strategies[16] Conclusion - The 2026 Chinese credit market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by marginal improvements, structural differentiation, and orderly risk clearance under a supportive macro policy environment[17]