2026年度农产品策略报告-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pricing logic of agricultural products has shifted, with policy and geopolitics taking precedence, followed by cost, and supply - demand coming third due to complex international trade environments and increased trade conflicts [8][114]. - In 2026, the overall supply of agricultural products is expected to increase, but the growth rate will slow down. There are potential opportunities in specific sectors and stages, while market volatility will intensify [114]. - For different agricultural products, such as oilseeds, grains, livestock, and eggs, their supply - demand structures, market trends, and influencing factors vary, and corresponding investment strategies and risk points need to be considered. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated, with a wider spot price range than the futures price. The price of oils declined from a high level, with palm oil leading the market, and the soybean - palm oil price spread widened and adjusted [7][11][19]. 3.1.2 2026 Market Analysis - The pricing of oilseeds is mainly influenced by policy and geopolitics. The global supply - demand of oilseeds is approaching balance in 2025/26, but there are opportunities for phased market movements due to uncertain factors such as weather and policies [8][114]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase at a slower pace, with soybeans decreasing and rapeseed and sunflower seeds increasing. The consumption of oilseeds is expected to be strong, mainly driven by bio - diesel policies and feed demand [29][35]. - The production of palm oil may exceed expectations, driven by weather and technological factors. The biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are uncertain, which will affect the demand for oils [67][83]. - There are differences in the forecasts of global vegetable oil trade volume by different institutions. The inventory of vegetable oils is expected to decline slightly, and the market lacks a clear driving force [106][110]. 3.1.3 Price Outlook - If South American soybean production decreases by more than 10 million tons, the global soybean price center will move up. If South American production is stable and China actively purchases soybeans, the market will be relatively loose. If China purchases cautiously, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [114]. 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic and international corn futures prices first rose and then fell. The domestic market was mainly affected by policies, experiencing a roller - coaster ride from state - owned grain reserve purchases to imported corn auctions [120][123]. 3.2.2 2026 Market Analysis - Global corn production is expected to have a good harvest, with increased production in the US and China. The demand for feed and deep - processing is expected to decline slightly due to losses in the breeding industry [121][164]. - The inventory of corn is expected to increase, with an increase in trade - link inventory and expected imports of substitutes [121]. 3.2.3 Future Concerns - The relative changes between the expected high - yield and carry - over inventory will affect the corn price [186]. - The increase in Xinjiang's corn production will change the national corn trade pattern [191]. - The impact of bio - energy policies on US corn exports and the guidance of agricultural policies on the corn market [195][197]. 3.2.4 Price Outlook - In 2026, the international corn market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face pressure from a large harvest and increased imports. The price is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [206]. 3.3 Pork 3.3.1 2025 Market Review - The supply of pork increased in 2025, leading to a decline in prices. The market was affected by factors such as secondary fattening and policy regulation [208][212]. 3.3.2 2026 Market Analysis - The number of sows in stock decreased in October 2025, which will lead to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second half of 2026, resulting in a supply contraction [209][220]. - Pig prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, and industry profits are expected to recover. Policy guidance and supply - demand adjustment will interact to affect pig prices [209]. 3.3.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, the pig market is expected to experience a price reversal. After the Spring Festival, pig prices may decline seasonally, but they will rebound after May as supply decreases and demand recovers [266]. 3.4 Eggs 3.4.1 2025 Market Review - The spot price of eggs was under pressure from the supply side and showed a weak performance throughout the year, with obvious seasonal patterns [267][271]. 3.4.2 2026 Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The willingness of farmers to replenish the flock has decreased, and the willingness to cull old hens has increased, which will help alleviate over - capacity [283][285]. - Feed raw material prices are expected to be weak, reducing the cost support for egg prices. The terminal demand for eggs maintains normal seasonal patterns without new bright spots [268]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, egg prices are expected to follow seasonal patterns. With the expected slow decline in production capacity, egg prices are expected to improve, but uncertainties in farmers' replenishment and culling decisions need to be monitored [308][310].