Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-15 08:34Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen a widening decline, necessitating a stabilization of investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment is 2.6%, with a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9%, but this is still a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services saw a decline of 0.1%, while water, environment, and public facilities management experienced a decline of 6.3% [4]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, while central and western regions saw declines of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The northeastern region faced a significant decline of 14.0% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The current cycle is characterized by excessive clearing of supply entities and difficulties in inventory replenishment, leading to a slow recovery in investment [11]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the industry is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from major national strategies. Key companies to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in new infrastructure and overseas markets [16].