Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-15 08:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 15, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1061.0, up 3.16%. After continuous decline, coking coal had a technical rebound. The macro - situation emphasized the comprehensive improvement of "involution - style" competition. Fundamentally, Mongolian customs clearance vehicles remained at a high level at the end of the year, and the inventory at Ganqimaodu Port continued to accumulate. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. - On December 15, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1503.5, up 0.30%, with a second - round price cut in the spot market. The macro - situation aimed to guide the standardized export of steel products. Fundamentally, iron - water production decreased, and coke inventory was moderately weak. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1061.00 yuan/ton, up 44.50; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1503.50 yuan/ton, up 28.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 738631.00 hands, down 20458.00; J期货合约持仓量 decreased to 44452.00 hands, down 2146.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts increased to - 38651.00 hands, up 13096.00; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts increased to 95.00 hands, up 459.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 95.50 yuan/ton, up 24.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 167.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts increased to 300.00, up 200.00; coke warehouse receipts remained at 2070.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimaodu Mongolian No.5 raw coal remained at 930.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1775.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot remained at 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1570.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased to 1410.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1670.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The J主力合约基差 decreased to 271.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50; the JM主力合约基差 decreased to 549.00 yuan/ton, down 44.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 27.90 million tons, up 0.80; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 0.38%, up 0.02; the monthly raw coal output increased to 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite increased to 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines decreased to 189.80, down 0.60 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports increased to 481.60 million tons, up 11.00; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports increased to 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises increased to 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises increased to 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 [2]. - The weekly coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 794.65 million tons, down 3.62; the weekly coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased to 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises decreased to 12.82 days, down 0.06; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills increased to 11.66 days, up 0.37 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal decreased to 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased to 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal increased to 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.16%, down 0.68 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants increased to 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke decreased to 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 78.61%, down 1.53; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 85.90%, down 1.16 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output decreased to 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized measures to promote investment recovery, increase the scale of central budgetary investment, and comprehensively improve "involution - style" competition and develop new kinetic energy [2]. - The Ministry of Finance pointed out the need to maintain appropriate fiscal deficits, debt - scale, and expenditure, and make good use of government bond funds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2]. - The housing - purchase interest - subsidy policy attracted attention, and some cities saw a more than 15% month - on - month increase in new - home transactions after the pilot [2].