——利率债市场周度复盘：重要会议提及双降，债市先强后弱-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the second week of December 2025, significant meetings were held, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies with limited new increments. After the previous adjustment, the bond market's cost - effectiveness became prominent. In the first half of the week, the bond market overcame negative factors, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds showing significant recovery, and China Development Bank bonds performing better than Treasury bonds. On Friday, the expectation of fiscal expansion led to profit - taking pressure, driving the bond market to correct again, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased its previous gains. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.25BP to 1.3875%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 1.4BP to 1.8425%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.45BP to 2.2470%. The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan, the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, the capital market was stable and loose, the issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.6517%, and the weighted price of DR007 rose to 1.4691% [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Market Review: Bond Market First Strong Then Weak after "Double Cut" Mentioned in Important Meetings - Monday (December 8): The central bank had a net injection of 147 billion yuan in the morning. With better - than - expected exports in November and the adjustment of insurance business risk factors, the equity market opened high and moved higher. After the Politburo meeting in the afternoon, there was limited new information, and bond yields first decreased and then increased under the influence of easing expectations. The long - term and ultra - long - term bonds remained weak. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.7325%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.40BP to 1.8325%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.85BP to 2.2600% [2][9][11] - Tuesday (December 9): The central bank had a net withdrawal of 390 billion yuan in the morning. DR001 dropped below 1.3%. With the weak adjustment of the equity market and the conclusion of the Politburo meeting, the bond market sentiment stabilized marginally. China Development Bank bonds performed better than Treasury bonds. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.75BP to 1.7250%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.65BP to 2.2535% [2][12] - Wednesday (December 10): The central bank had a net injection of 1015 billion yuan in the morning. Inflation data met expectations, the expectation of real - estate incremental policies increased, and the expectation of loose money spread. The bond market continued to recover throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 1.65BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.85BP to 1.7165%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.75BP to 2.2360% [2][13] - Thursday (December 11): The central bank had a net withdrawal of 622 billion yuan in the morning. With the continued adjustment of the equity market, the bond market continued to recover due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. At the end of the day, the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "double cut", and the bond - buying sentiment briefly flared up, with yields accelerating the recovery. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by nearly 3BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.65BP to 1.7000%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 2.00BP to 1.8150%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2.80BP to 2.2080% [2][14] - Friday (December 12): The central bank had a net withdrawal of 193 billion yuan. The equity market opened low and moved high. The Financial Times quoted experts saying that the supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds would increase next year. Profit - taking pressure drove most bond yields up. Treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years increased by 2 - 4BP, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased all its previous gains. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.7275%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.8425%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3.9BP to 2.2470% [3][15][16] 3.2 Capital Market The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan through open - market operations (OMO), the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, and the capital market was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.65%, and the weighted price of DR001 dropped below 1.3% to 1.2747% [4][8] 3.3 Primary Issuance The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds increased, while the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [5] 3.4 Benchmark Changes The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened. Specifically, the yields of short - term Treasury bonds decreased by 1.37BP, and those of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.99BP. The yields of long - term Treasury bonds decreased by 0.84BP, and those of long - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.75BP. The short - term varieties of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds performed better than the long - term ones. In terms of the absolute level of term spreads, the 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 0.53BP to 45.17BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds widened by 0.24BP to 37.90BP [21]