瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the reserve demand for urea has slowed down, but there is still short - term restocking demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, with high开工率 of industrial compound fertilizers and continuous demand, and the existence of some reserve gaps, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1629 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 52 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2547 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 97760 lots, a decrease of 20998 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 8216. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11245 sheets, a decrease of 51 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1690 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 347.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, unchanged. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%; the melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 11, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week, an increase of 17.14%. Exports are being shipped to ports, and the shipping rhythm has slightly accelerated [2]. - As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 0.02%. Some previously - overhauled devices have resumed production, driving a slight increase in domestic urea output. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production this week, and 1 stopped - production enterprise's device may resume production [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The enterprise capacity utilization rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. There are short - term fluctuations in production. The demand from industrial compound fertilizers is strong, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]