中国宏观数据点评：实体经济数据11月增速继续放缓，明年年初政策刺激可期

Economic Growth and Trends - In November, the growth rate of the real economy continued to slow, with demand weakening faster than supply[1] - The expected economic growth for this year remains around 5%, supported by better-than-expected import and export data[1][6] - The central economic work conference set a target for next year's economic growth at approximately 5% with moderate policy stimulus anticipated[1][6] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, significantly below market expectations[2] - Retail sales of goods decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 1.0%, with notable declines in jewelry (-29.1 percentage points to 8.5%) and automotive sales (-1.7 percentage points to -8.3%)[2][10] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of -2.3%[3] - Real estate development investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -15.9%, and new construction area dropped by 0.7 percentage points to -20.5%[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1 percentage point to -1.1%[3] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% in November, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices[5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, aligning with market expectations[4][20]