海外宏观周报：美联储未来降息路径分歧加大-20251215

Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, with future rate cuts expected to be less frequent and more uncertain[1] - The market anticipates that the federal funds target rate could fall below 3% by 2026, exceeding current expectations of two rate cuts[2] - The U.S. economy is exhibiting a "K-shaped" recovery, where wealth effects from rising stock prices primarily benefit the wealthy, while employment growth remains weak[2] Inflation and Employment Trends - Inflation is expected to peak in Q1 2026 due to base effects, with a mid-term decline anticipated as long-term rates suppress demand and the job market loosens[2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, indicating potential labor market weakness, although the four-week moving average remains low[9] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation is stable at 3.2%, suggesting easing consumer concerns about short-term price increases[9] Risks and Market Reactions - If the U.S. economy proves more resilient than expected, there may be a need to reassess higher interest rate paths due to accelerating employment or unexpected inflation[3] - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for 2026, with probabilities fluctuating based on economic data and Fed communications[22]