银行行业月报：总量平稳，结构分化-20251215

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected index increase of over 10% relative to the market in the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the total social financing (社融) stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year in November, with a stable month-on-month growth rate. The new social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. This growth was primarily supported by an increase in corporate bonds, while government bonds and new loans saw a year-on-year decrease [4][12]. - Credit demand remains weak, with loans increasing by 390 billion yuan in November, which is a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The total balance of RMB loans reached 271 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year but declining by 0.1% month-on-month [5][17]. - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline, while M2 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, also showing a slight month-on-month decrease [19][23]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In November, the social financing stock reached 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The total new social financing from January to November was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan year-on-year. Government bonds were a significant contributor to this growth, with net financing reaching 13.15 trillion yuan, up by 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year [4][12]. Credit Demand - The report indicates that the demand for credit is still weak, particularly in the household sector, which saw a reduction of 206.3 billion yuan in November. In contrast, the corporate sector experienced an increase in loans, particularly in short-term financing [5][18]. Monetary Supply - The report notes that the M1 money supply's year-on-year growth rate was 4.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.3%. The total new RMB deposits in November were 1.41 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year [19][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the financial data in November reflects a divergence in total and structural aspects, with ongoing policy effects. It anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, with strong risk compensation capabilities. The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, encouraging long-term capital allocation towards this sector [6][24].