近期市场反馈及思考 8：论债市定价权的转移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a shift in bond market pricing power, particularly for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, from trading desks to allocation desks due to macroeconomic narrative changes and supply-demand dynamics [11][12][13] - The report highlights that the demand structure for long-duration assets has changed, with a weakening marginal demand from insurance and banks, leading to a more pronounced supply-demand contradiction [12][13] - The report suggests that trading funds should focus on short to medium-term strategies, while allocation funds should look for suitable buying points in the insurance sector [13] Group 2 - The report discusses the understanding of "flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools," emphasizing that "shortening and lengthening" is about adjusting liquidity structure rather than contracting total liquidity [14][15] - It notes that the liquidity environment in Q1 2026 is expected to be stable and low, contrasting sharply with the tightening seen in Q1 2025 [16][17] - The report anticipates that the effectiveness of leverage strategies will increase in 2026 due to stable funding rates and a potential steepening of the yield curve [17][18] Group 3 - The report outlines that the effective strategies in the bond market are cyclical, with a shift from duration strategies to "carry and leverage" strategies expected in 2026 [18] - It highlights that the investment style of amortized cost bond funds has shifted from interest rate bonds to credit bonds, particularly supporting the demand for high-quality credit bonds [19][20] - The report indicates that the recent convergence of spreads between credit bond ETFs' constituent and non-constituent bonds is influenced by bank proprietary trading and liquidity management [22][23] Group 4 - The report discusses the impact of the new public fund fee regulations on the demand structure for credit bonds, suggesting a potential weakening of pricing power for bond funds [24][25] - It notes that the demand for convertible bonds remains strong due to their favorable positioning in the market, especially for non-redeemed and newly issued bonds [26][27] - The report concludes that the performance of convertible bonds in November was driven by the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the significant accumulation of previously underweighted positions [28]