2026年花生期货行情展望：品质分化，筑底回升

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of peanuts is expected to bottom out and rebound after the selling pressure is released. In 2026, the price of peanuts is predicted to fluctuate between 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton, with a core range of 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on factors such as oil mill purchases and imports, and adopt a band - trading strategy [1][45]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Peanut Price Trend Review - In 2025, peanut prices showed an overall range - bound and slightly upward trend, with the weighted index fluctuating between 7,690 - 8,468 yuan/ton. Compared with three major oils, peanut prices were more affected by domestic fundamentals and had a weaker increase [3]. - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: from January to May, prices rose due to factors such as limited supply and oil mill restocking; from May to October, prices fell because of reduced oil mill purchasing enthusiasm and increased supply expectations; from October to the present, prices stabilized and fluctuated due to structural supply - demand contradictions caused by quality differentiation [5][6][7]. 2. 2026 Peanut Futures Outlook 2.1 Supply Side: Domestic Peanut Planting Area and Yield Continue to Increase - 2025/26 Peanut Planting Expansion and Yield Increase: Due to relatively good planting benefits, the peanut planting area has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2025, the national peanut planting area was 47.48 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. The yield also increased, with a national peanut fruit output of 13.4516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. However, there were regional differences in quality and yield [8][9]. - Imported Peanuts: The global peanut supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose. China's peanut imports showed characteristics of "decreased quantity, structural transformation, and source change." In the 2024/25 period, peanut imports decreased by 42% year - on - year. In the 2025/26 period, it is expected to maintain a pattern of "more oil and less peanuts," and the total import volume may decline [14][15][16]. - Sales Progress: As of the end of November, the remaining peanut inventory in domestic production areas was 72.6%, more than the five - year average of 69%. The selling pressure has shifted to a later period. If there is no selling pressure before the Spring Festival, the post - holiday sales pressure will increase, which is negative for far - month contracts [29]. 2.2 Demand Side: Oil Mill Purchases Remain Crucial - Oil Mill Purchases: The factors affecting oil mill purchasing attitudes include current - year peanut yield, previous - year inventory, current - year peanut oil consumption, and profit margins from pressing. In the 2025/26 period, there is no strong driving force for oil mills to enter the market early and continuously raise purchase prices, but the annual purchase volume is expected to increase compared to last year. The overall profit from pressing is expected to improve compared to the previous year, and oil mills' purchasing willingness may increase after the Spring Festival [31][39][41]. - Inventory Demand Caused by Peanut Quality Differentiation: The consumption of commercial peanuts remains weak, but the prices of high - quality peanuts are supported. In the 2025/26 period, the supply - demand game around high - quality peanuts will continue [42].