2026年玉米期货行情展望：底部确立，价格重心上移

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 2025/26 crop year, the bottom of the corn price is expected to rise, and investors should focus on trading opportunities in price fluctuations. The domestic corn supply will increase due to the growth in both planting area and yield in 2025, while the demand is expected to decline. As a result, the supply - demand situation will be marginally looser, and the overall policy - related substitutes still have room, which restricts the upside of the corn price [2][81][82]. - Before the Spring Festival, the selling pressure on corn may not be significant. After the resolution of the temporary supply - demand mismatch, traders will enter the market to build inventories, and the price correction will be limited. Subsequently, the corn price may fall again due to traders' selling and policy auctions, but the overall price center is expected to move up. Additionally, the situation of the new - season corn should be monitored [2][82]. - In 2026, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2000 - 2450 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2100 - 2400 yuan/ton [3][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Corn Market Review - In 2025, the corn futures price fluctuated within a large range, and the spot price moved up compared to the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the price rose due to factors such as policy - driven stockpiling, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. After reaching a high, the price declined due to factors like imported corn auctions and high warehouse receipts. After the new grain was on the market, the price rebounded. The overall price center continued to move down compared to the previous year, and the futures were mainly in a negative basis situation, with a "strong expectation, weak reality" tone [6]. 3.2 International Grains: Loose Supply - Demand Remains Unchanged - Global Grains: In the 2025/26 crop year, the global grain supply - demand remains loose. The global grain planting area increased due to better planting profit compared to soybeans, with production rising by 3.2% year - on - year to 2.946 billion tons. Demand increased by 2.3% year - on - year to 2.947 billion tons, mainly from the feed and industrial sectors. The ending inventory is expected to be 769 million tons, a 0.16% year - on - year decrease [11]. - International Corn: - USA: In the 2025/26 crop year, the US corn production reached a record high due to the increase in both area and yield. The domestic demand and export demand increased. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, but the price center is expected to move up due to strong export demand and the possible reduction in the 2026 planting area [12][15]. - Brazil: The Brazilian corn production is expected to decline. The planting area increased by 4%, but the yield per hectare decreased by 5.4% due to factors such as high - temperature drought and delayed soybean harvest affecting the second - season corn [17]. - Ukraine: The Ukrainian corn production increased, and the export is expected to recover. The production increased by 5.2 million tons year - on - year, and the export is expected to reach 24.5 million tons in the 2025/26 crop year [19]. 3.3 Domestic Corn - Production Increase in 2025/26: In 2025, the national corn planting area increased by 940,000 mu (0.15%) to 60.912 million mu. The yield increased due to favorable climate conditions and the promotion of planting techniques. The national corn output was 282.45 million tons, a 4.1% year - on - year increase [21][22]. - Feed Demand Expected to Decline Slowly: - 2025/26 Feed Demand Forecast: The overall feed demand is expected to decline. For pigs, the inventory of sows is expected to decrease, driving the decline in commercial pig inventory after the second quarter of 2026. For poultry, the feed demand for meat - type poultry is expected to increase slightly, while that for egg - laying poultry is expected to decline [24][29][39]. - Structural Demand for Corn: The structural demand for corn in feed is expected to decline slightly. The substitution of corn in feed depends on cost - effectiveness and policy. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn has decreased, and the overall substitution situation is uncertain [41][42]. - Deep - processing Demand Expected to Increase Slightly: The deep - processing demand for corn is expected to be relatively rigid, with consumption remaining flat or increasing slightly compared to the previous year. In 2024/25, the consumption of deep - processing enterprises decreased by 5%, mainly in the starch and alcohol industries. Currently, the consumption is showing signs of recovery [45]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Annual Inventory Accumulation: In the 2025/26 crop year, the domestic corn market is expected to accumulate inventory. Supply will increase due to higher production and possible import growth, while demand will decline, resulting in a marginally looser supply - demand pattern [52]. 3.4 Range - bound with a Rising Price Floor - Limited Price Decline and Weak Selling Pressure Before the Spring Festival: Since November 2025, the corn price has been rising against the season due to factors such as restocking demand, farmers' reluctance to sell, and logistics bottlenecks. The outflow of corn from Northeast China is expected to decrease in the future, the downstream restocking enthusiasm will weaken, and the port inventory will gradually accumulate. After the resolution of the supply - demand mismatch, traders will build inventories, and the selling pressure on farmers may not be significant, with limited price correction [53][55][56]. - After Grain Sales: Focus on Traders' Selling, Substitutes, and New - season Corn Planting: - Domestic Policy Substitutes - Wheat Substitution Limited: The wheat - corn price spread is currently high, and the substitution volume is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly. The probability of a large - scale substitution of wheat for corn before the first quarter of 2026 is low. Attention should be paid to the new - season wheat production and the possible auction of overdue wheat [68][69]. - Domestic Policy Substitutes - Possible Rice Auction: There is still a surplus of brown rice, and attention should be paid to the policy regarding its release time, quantity, and base price [71]. - Imported Grains May Increase Marginally: The import of corn is expected to increase slightly, mainly depending on policy and import profit. The import of sorghum and barley is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to cost - effectiveness and import policies [73][75]. - Traders' Selling and New - season Corn: After the Spring Festival, the corn price may fall due to traders' selling and the influence of substitutes. The planting cost of new - season corn may increase, and the price may rise in the third quarter due to inventory reduction and restocking demand [80].