政策主导，预计宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - Supply: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - Demand: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - Inventory: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - Viewpoint: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - Strategy: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - Q1: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - Q2: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - Q3: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - Q4: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - Global economic growth: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - Supply country pattern: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - Global coking coal trade flow: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - "Green premium" institutionalization: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - Real estate: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - Infrastructure: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - Manufacturing: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - Coal consumption: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - Coal price mechanism: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - High - quality development: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - Green and low - carbon policies: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - "Anti - involution" and supply - side reform: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - Industrial chain structure: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - Inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - Imports: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - Production: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - Demand: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - Profit: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].