聚烯烃年报：仍将处于产能高峰期，偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In 2025, against the backdrop of a decline in China's economic growth and a sluggish real - estate market, polyolefins will maintain a pattern of high new - capacity investment pressure, low operating rates, and low profits. With crude oil oscillating downward, the cost - side driver is bearish, and polyolefins will mainly oscillate downward throughout the year. In 2026, it will still be in the peak capacity period, with a planned capacity increase rate of up to 20%. Even if the actual production is only half of the planned level, the capacity growth pressure will still be huge. The domestic real - estate industry will remain sluggish, economic growth will decline, demand will be poor, and polyolefins will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices remaining weak [8]. - For unilateral and option strategies, adopt a bearish approach. The resistance level for plastics is 7000, and for PP is 6500. In terms of options, sell call options [8]. - For the PP unilateral strategy, short the contract. As of December 11, the price was 6241, showing a downward trend. In 2026, the new capacity of PP will still be large, and downstream demand will remain weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. Hold short positions [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Technical Analysis - Market Review: In 2025, the continuous decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyolefins. The industry was in the peak period of capacity expansion, with a capacity growth rate of over 10%. The market was in a long - term state of oversupply. Enterprises generally adopted a "price - for - volume" strategy. The demand in traditional domestic fields such as real estate was sluggish, and Sino - US trade policies impacted the export of plastic products. Polyolefins mainly oscillated downward throughout the year. In the middle of the year, driven by factors such as favorable Sino - US tariff policies, a rebound in crude oil, and expectations of anti - involution policies, there was a phased rebound. After August, the price returned to the downward trend [22]. - Technical Analysis: From the weekly K - line chart of the 05 contract, since June 2024, it has been in a unilateral decline, breaking through the bottom of the price range of the past five years at 6900. Technically, the trend is weak, with a resistance level of 6900 and a support level of 5350 [26]. 2. Macroeconomy and Energy - Macroeconomy: China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but market confidence is still insufficient. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. As of November, imports and exports have maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months, with outstanding performance in the export of mechanical and electrical products and the "new three types" of products. The trade partners have become more diversified, with an increase in trade volume with ASEAN and the EU and a decrease with the US. The year - on - year decline in new construction starts in the domestic real - estate industry is still large, and the decline in new - house sales has narrowed. The decline in real - estate completion and transaction areas is still significant [31][34][35]. - Crude Oil: Affected by factors such as the slow global economic recovery, global oil demand growth is weak. The International Energy Agency predicts that the demand growth in 2026 will be only 720,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than the historical average. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and as of August, the idle capacity of the OPEC alliance was 4.1 million barrels per day, almost all concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [52]. - Coal: "Anti - involution" and normalized safety supervision policies will continuously restrict the disorderly release of production capacity, and the growth space of domestic production is limited. Driven by the growth of the macro - economy, especially the tertiary industry and AI computing power demand, the demand for thermal coal still has resilience. In addition, the coal - chemical industry (such as methanol and urea) will be the main highlight of demand growth, and coal prices may remain stable [61]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: The spot prices are weakly declining, reaching new lows in recent years [68]. - Basis: The document provides the basis charts of PE and PP main contracts, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [70]. 4. Industrial Chain Profit Situation - PE Production Profit: PE production profit remains in a loss state, and the cost has support [76]. - PP Production Profit: No specific conclusion is mentioned, but multiple production - profit charts are provided [80][82]. - PE/PP Import and Export Profit: PE and PP import profits are poor, while PP export profit is acceptable [87]. 5. Inventory - PE Inventory: The document provides charts of PE production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [93][96]. - PP Inventory: The document provides charts of PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, but no specific analysis content is mentioned [99][101]. 6. Supply Side - PE Production: The annual increase in PE production is 19%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PE is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half lower [116][134][143]. - PP Production: The annual increase in PP production is 17%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned production capacity of PP is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half lower [124][140][145]. - PE and PP Imports: From January to October, the PE import volume was 11.01 million tons, with an increase rate of 3.3%; the PP import volume was 1.73 million tons, with a decline rate of 10.8% [128]. 7. Demand Side - PE/PP Downstream Operating Rates: The downstream operating rates are at the lowest level in the past five years [152]. - PE/PP Export Volumes: From January to October, the PE export volume was 910,000 tons, with an increase rate of 30%, and the PP export volume was 2.29 million tons, with an increase rate of 25% [170]. - Plastic Products: From March to October, the plastic product output was 54.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [173]. - Automobile and Home Appliance Production: In 2025, from January to November, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% [180].