甲醇：港口库存高位下降，震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of methanol exceeds demand, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2160 level. Attention should be paid to changes in methanol production and port inventory [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. The unloading speed of foreign ships was lower than expected, leading to an unexpected decline in port methanol inventory, which is still at a high level and continues to suppress the market. The inland methanol price declined weakly. Low - priced port supplies flowed into the inland market, and snow and rain in some production areas increased logistics costs. Domestic methanol enterprises reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. The domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East are gradually taking effect, but the on - the - way cargo volume from Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain high. The downstream acetic acid Celanese plant is expected to restart this week, and other plants may gradually resume operation. The capacity utilization rate of the downstream is expected to increase, while the average weekly operation rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to decline. The overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to be stable but weak [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [9] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous period and a 17.46% decrease from the same period last year. Profits from different production processes in other regions also showed various degrees of change [10] Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude plant stopped production as scheduled. The downstream acetic acid plants had various production situations, with some not at full capacity and some affected by environmental protection. Although many plants were restarting, the overall capacity utilization rate increased [12] Inventory Analysis - As of December 10, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.50 million tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.94 million tons from the same period last year, a 13.77% year - on - year increase [14] Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 929,428, an increase of 9,798, and the short positions were 1,066,903, a decrease of 6,673. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [17]