纯碱周报：企业库存预期高位，震荡偏弱-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor price fluctuations. The supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is expected to be weak. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1200 level [1]. - Key factors to watch include changes in soda ash production, new capacity launch progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable, with production increasing by 3.15 million tons (4.48%) to 73.54 million tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rising to 84.35%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.43 million tons (2.88%) to 149.43 million tons. The pending orders increased slightly to nearly 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash production is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be weak, with the output of float glass expected to decline slightly and that of photovoltaic glass expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 2.1 Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the East China soda ash market was stable with minor price adjustments. The futures price trended weakly, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and upward trend [5]. 2.2 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the domestic soda ash production was 73.54 million tons, an increase of 3.15 million tons (4.48%). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 33.76 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 39.78 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons [7]. - The theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50.25%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% [7]. 2.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic Glass: As of December 11, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous period. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there may be unexpected production cuts [11]. - Float Glass: As of December 11, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The output of float glass may slightly decline [11]. 2.4 Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.43 million tons, a decrease of 4.43 million tons (2.88%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 70.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.40 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 79.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons [13]. 2.5 Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 942,182, a decrease of 6,473, and the short positions were 1,160,330, a decrease of 4,400. The net positions were bearish [15].