2026年生猪期货年度行情展望：政策与市场双轮驱动，有望迎周期拐点

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, a new industrial pattern was basically formed. Group companies continued the incremental trend, the profit of the breeding port expanded, some large - scale farms and individual farmers shifted to the professional fattening model, the stocking model expanded significantly, market flexibility increased again, and the dual - drive of raw materials and management led to a further decline in the cost center. In the first half of 2026, the supply increment trend was difficult to reverse, and the spot price would seek the cycle bottom. If it fell below the cash - flow cost, it might stimulate the acceleration of capacity elimination. In the second half of 2026, the inventory cycle was at a low level. The speculative replenishment demand in the third quarter provided support, and the regular demand increased in the fourth quarter. The price center might rise compared with the first half, and a slight profit pattern was expected [2][44][45]. - The main trading logic in the first half of 2026 was the capacity cycle anchored by the industry's cash - flow cost, maintaining a contango structure as a whole. In the second half, there would be a rebound repair market after the phased bottom and a reality repair market after the high - expectation on the disk was realized. The forward premium structure brought stronger game - playing for the cycle reversal market, and the industry could reasonably arrange hedging according to the expected profit [3][47]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Review of the Live Pig Futures and Spot Market - The core law of the live pig futures and spot market in 2025 was the reality repair after the advance of spot and policy expectations. The market expected a large increase in capacity in 2025 due to high profits in the second half of 2024, and anchored each contract to the cost in advance. However, in the first quarter, the low social inventory and continuous high profits led to strong inventory accumulation space and willingness in the industry, and the increase in supply was not effectively released, so the disk repaired upwards. From June to July, the policy - driven expectations of inventory and capacity reduction drove the disk up, but as the supply pressure gradually released, the spot price led the disk to decline [6]. - The futures and spot price trends in 2025 could be divided into four stages: - January - February: Weak expectations advanced, and prices were anchored to the cost. The market expected the industry to enter an incremental cycle in advance and anchored the January contract below the cost, with a discount of nearly 3000 yuan/ton to the spot price [7]. - March - May: The reality was stronger, and the disk repaired. After the Spring Festival, the social inventory and weight level decreased. From the end of February, the industry entered the stage of restocking. The price of piglets rose rapidly, and group farms actively sold, reducing the pen pressure. The feed weight - gain cost was lower than in previous years, and group farms also started the active weight - gain trend in March. The low frozen - product inventory supported the demand in the off - season, and the disk repaired its valuation upwards [8]. - June - July: Affected by policies, market sentiment was high. The low - inventory and high - profit pattern in the first half led to strong inventory - accumulation continuity. Although some leading enterprises announced weight reduction and banning secondary fattening according to policy guidance, the flexibility of medium - sized and speculative groups was higher, which extended the policy - driven inventory reduction and increased short - term fluctuations in the disk and spot prices. On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on the high - quality development of the live pig industry, and the live pig futures rose sharply following the commodity sentiment [9]. - August - December: Policies were implemented, and industrial logic was realized. As the policy - driven expectations of inventory and capacity reduction cooled down and specific policies were implemented, most clauses aimed at adjusting the long - term supply, and it was difficult to quickly reverse the short - term oversupply situation in the spot market. The industrial logic returned. The Guangxi warehouse - receipt price dropped from 14,000 yuan/ton to a minimum of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the disk price continued to fall from a high of 15,000 yuan/ton to a minimum of 11,020 yuan/ton [10]. 2. 2026 Live Pig Operation Logic: Dual - Drive of Policy and Market Profit, and the Direction of Capacity Reduction is Determined 2.1 Supply Side - The industry was about to enter a stage of continuous and deep losses, and the pattern of capacity reduction was determined. In recent years, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal, the breeding cost center had dropped rapidly. The industry entered the loss stage in September 2025, and with strong policy - driven willingness to reduce capacity, the pattern of capacity reduction was determined. However, due to the lag in the pig production chain, the supply would still maintain an incremental trend in the first half of 2026, and the supply situation in the second half was more variable, with the market's capacity - reduction effect expected to be initially realized [13]. - Policy intervention confirmed the direction of capacity reduction. The policy determined the direction of capacity adjustment, and the data of breeding sows initially reflected this. In May 2025, the live pig industry was included in the anti - involution industry, and the policy would adjust the capacity in a timely manner. A series of policy measures were implemented, and the number of breeding sows began to decline in July, with the inventory decreasing to 39.9 million heads in October [14]. - The industry's cash flow was still sufficient, and the acceleration of inventory reduction would start the capacity - reduction process. The industry had been profitable, and the cost center had decreased, resulting in sufficient cash flow. As of the fourth quarter of 2025, the full cost of Muyuan Co., Ltd. had dropped to 11.3 yuan/kg, and the costs of other leading breeding enterprises had also decreased. As of mid - September 2025, most self - breeding and self - fattening groups still had profits, making it difficult to drive the whole market to actively reduce capacity. As of early December 2025, the market was still in the passive inventory - accumulation stage, but with the arrival of the winter solstice peak season, the social and group sectors would actively increase the supply and reduce the weight, starting the inventory - reduction stage. If the weight - reduction target could be achieved before the Spring Festival, it would mark the start of capacity reduction [16][22]. - Continuous and deep losses would stimulate capacity reduction. Reviewing the pig cycle, it was found that the cycle duration after African swine fever was shorter than before, but the capacity cycle was the core, and the profit cycle was the driving force. In 2021 and 2023, continuous losses led to effective capacity reduction and cycle reversal. In the fourth quarter of 2025, self - breeding and self - fattening only suffered losses for half a month, and the loss depth was limited. If there were deep losses below the cash - flow cost in the first half of 2026 and they lasted for a long time, it would stimulate the acceleration of capacity reduction [24][25]. 2.2 Demand Side - Overall demand was stable, and speculative demand decreased. - The total pork consumption increased year - on - year, and it was difficult to have higher elasticity in 2026. In 2025, the total pork slaughter volume increased significantly year - on - year and was at a historical high. The high slaughter volume and price in the first half were slightly stronger than in the same period of 2024, indicating that the consumption capacity had increased. The low frozen - product inventory and small price difference between frozen and fresh products stimulated the conversion of frozen - product consumption to fresh - product consumption. The low price in 2025 had stimulated pork consumption, and there was limited space for additional consumption growth in 2026, and the pickled meat reserve might overdraw the next year's consumption [32]. - In recent years, the seasonal influence of speculative demand had increased. The seasonal consumption pattern of live pigs still followed the traditional rules, but the influence of secondary fattening speculative demand had increased significantly and had certain seasonal characteristics. However, since June 2025, the secondary fattening group had suffered multiple losses, and the expected concentrated release of pressure in December 2025 might suppress the enthusiasm of the secondary fattening group in 2026 [41]. - The room for further decline in the cost side was limited, and policy - driven demand might provide support. Feed raw material prices were at a relatively low level in recent years, and the room for further decline was limited. The industry's average cost had decreased to 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and there was no strong driving force for a significant cost reduction. There was an expectation of continuous state reserve purchases when the pig - grain price ratio fell below 5:1, which would strengthen the bottom - level policy - driven demand support [43]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The direction of capacity reduction was determined, and the bottom - grinding stage might exceed expectations. In 2026, the supply increment trend in the first half was difficult to reverse, and the spot price would seek the cycle bottom. If it fell below the cash - flow cost, it might stimulate the acceleration of capacity elimination. In the second half, the inventory cycle was at a low level, and the price center might rise, with a slight profit pattern expected [44][45]. - Supply side: The industry's cash flow was sufficient in 2025, so the supply increment pattern in the first half of 2026 was difficult to change. As of early December 2025, the market was still in the passive inventory - accumulation stage. In the first quarter of 2026, the key was whether the weight inventory could be cleared. In the second quarter, the supply of standard pigs was large, and if there was secondary fattening - related supply after the Spring Festival, the market pressure from April to May would increase. Although policies and market losses in the fourth quarter of 2025 stimulated capacity reduction, the impact on the overall supply in the third quarter of 2026 was limited, and the supply might decrease year - on - year in the fourth quarter [45]. - Demand side: In 2025, the regular demand exceeded expectations due to the stimulating effect of low prices on pork consumption. However, the consumption elasticity was limited, and it was difficult to have additional regular consumption growth in 2026. The low price in September - October 2025 had advanced some slaughter and storage, which might overdraw the off - season frozen - product storage demand in 2026. The demand for piglets might be suppressed, and the secondary fattening seasonality in 2026 was expected to be weaker than in 2025. In the first half of 2026, the price center was low, and the demand elasticity was weak. If a panic bottom appeared, the speculative demand for cycle reversal might be boosted in the second half [46]. 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the industry's profit turned negative, and the dual - drive of policy and market started capacity reduction. In 2026, the marginal supply was expected to decline, but the decline in the cost center suppressed the enthusiasm for active capacity reduction. Only when the price dropped deeply and stayed below the cost for a long time could it stimulate sufficient capacity reduction. - In the first half of 2026, the core fluctuation range of the spot price was expected to be 10,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton, and the futures index was expected to fluctuate between 10,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. In the second half, the core fluctuation range of the spot price was expected to be 11,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and the futures index was expected to fluctuate between 12,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton. - In terms of rhythm, the main trading logic in the first half of 2026 was the capacity cycle anchored by the industry's cash - flow cost, maintaining a contango structure. In the second half, there would be a rebound repair market after the phased bottom and a reality repair market after the high - expectation on the disk was realized. The forward premium structure brought stronger game - playing for the cycle reversal market, and the industry could reasonably arrange hedging according to the expected profit [47].