原油期货：供应过剩略有收窄

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated downward. Iraq resumed oilfield production, EIA and IEA monthly reports showed large supply - surplus pressure, and the market also focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut led to mixed price movements, with an overall decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - Currently, both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, and global floating crude oil inventories at sea have soared to 1.4 billion barrels, 24% higher than the historical average. Although the IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, it still expects the oil supply surplus to narrow slightly next year, with supply exceeding demand, suppressing oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on market sentiment, and short - selling at high levels is advisable [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated downward in the week ending December 12, 2025. Iraq resumed oilfield production, and supply - surplus pressure was large according to EIA and IEA reports. Geopolitical events and the Fed's interest - rate cut affected prices. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - For the future, OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, floating inventories are high, and although demand growth forecast is raised, supply will still exceed demand, with geopolitical factors having a short - term impact. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [2]. Attention Factors - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 437.60 | 453.40 | - 15.80 | - 3.48% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | Dollar/barrel | 62.03 | 64.22 | - 2.19 | - 3.41% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 61.22 | 63.86 | - 2.64 | - 4.13% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 57.51 | 60.11 | - 2.60 | - 4.33% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13853 | 13862 | - 9 | - 0.06% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 425691 | 424155 | 1536 | 0.36% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 645 | 593 | 52 | 8.77% | Weekly | [4]