2026年美豆期货分析展望：内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic of global soybean prices has shifted from being "dominated by the planting profit of a single major producer" to "synergistic resonance of multi - polar factors", with core driving dimensions showing three major changes: supply from "single US soybean supply" to "complementary production capacity of global major producing areas", circulation from "CBOT pricing" to "regional differentiation", and demand from "single - driven by feed demand" to "diversified multi - scenario demand". The US soybean has changed from the "price - setter" to a "participant" in global soybean prices [2][24]. - The global soybean supply pattern is accelerating the shift from "US - dominated" to "South - America - dominated with the US as a supplement". The traditional pricing logic of "planting profit guiding supply" for US soybeans is increasingly ineffective [9]. - In 2026, the global soybean market will enter a new stage of "South - America - dominated, policy - disturbed, and weather - determined". Short - term fluctuations will revolve around South American weather, Sino - US relations, and policy implementation, providing structural trading opportunities [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Soybean Price Trend Review - 1 - 2 months: South American weather disturbances and Sino - US trade friction expectations pushed up CBOT soybean prices. On February 4, the main US soybean contract reached a maximum of 1075 cents per bushel [5]. - 3 months: The market entered the "expectation realization" stage, and prices corrected. With the improvement of the Brazilian weather and accelerated harvesting, global supply pressure emerged, and prices entered a sideways shock in late March [5]. - 4 months: The downward adjustment of the new - crop area estimate and the exhaustion of trade - war negatives led to a V - shaped rebound in prices, followed by range - bound fluctuations. The estimated US soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season was 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [5]. - 5 - 6 months: The easing of trade tensions led to narrow price fluctuations. The US cancelled 91% of the newly added tariffs after April 2, and China revoked counter - measures. The US soybean price remained stable in the range of 1040 - 1080 cents per bushel [6]. - 7 months: Prices mainly declined due to improved precipitation in the US soybean main - producing areas and an upward - adjusted yield per unit area [6]. - 8 - 10 months: Prices were in a sideways shock. Supported by the yield per unit area and area data in the August USDA report, and affected by slightly less precipitation in the producing areas and market expectations of a Sino - US summit during APEC, the US soybean price fluctuated in the range of 970 - 1070 cents per bushel [6]. - 11 - 12 months: Prices rose significantly and then slightly declined. After the Sino - US summit, economic and trade relations eased. Although the US soybean price was boosted, China's actual procurement was less than expected, limiting the increase, and the CBOT price fluctuated around 1120 cents per bushel [7]. 3.2 Origin Game: Global Soybean Supply Pattern Reconstruction 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Industry - In 2025, Brazil's soybean production and exports reached new highs. The 2024/25 production was expected to be 171.5 million tons, accounting for 40% of the global total, and the 2025 export volume was expected to increase to 109 million tons, accounting for 58.91% of the global total [10]. - The main - producing states were highly concentrated, with the top four states contributing about 63% of the output. The harvested area continued to expand, and the average yield per unit area in the 2024/25 season reached 3.62 tons per hectare [10][11]. - The Brazilian government provided policy support, and its exports to China had advantages in terms of cost, logistics, and quality. The export structure was becoming more diversified. If there was no major drought in South America in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production was expected to reach 175 million tons, and exports could rise to 112.5 million tons [11][12]. 3.2.2 Argentine Soybean Industry - In 2024/25, Argentina's soybean production was expected to be 51.11 million tons, and exports 12.1 million tons, mainly due to increased area, restored yield per unit area, and government policies. However, for the 2025/26 season, the harvested area was expected to decrease, and exports might fall to 4.6 million tons. Under the La Niña climate, there was a risk of reduced production and limited export capacity [19]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Industry - The US soybean's share in global production and exports has continued to shrink. The traditional pricing mechanism centered on US soybean planting profits has become ineffective, and the US has shifted from the "price - setter" to a "participant" in global soybean prices [22][23]. 3.3 US Domestic and Foreign Policy Game 3.3.1 Increasing Exports - The Chinese market is still the core support for US soybean exports, but the growth space is limited. China's commitment to purchase at least 25 million tons of US soybeans annually from 2026 - 2028 is lower than historical averages [26]. - Markets in the EU and Southeast Asia have stable demand but small scales and long - term reliance on South American supplies. The expected incremental demand in 2025/26 is 3 - 5 million tons, which is difficult to make up for the gap in the Chinese market [30]. 3.3.2 Domestic Demand Support - The US government has intensified biodiesel policies, and domestic soybean consumption is expected to increase from 69.46 million tons in 2024/25 to 72.53 million tons in 2025/26. The inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased for two consecutive years. However, the estimated yield per unit area in the balance sheet may need to be further adjusted downward, and the supply - demand balance sheet may tighten [31]. 3.4 Core Points of the 2026 Market Game 3.4.1 Focus on La Niña, with South American Southern Producing Areas as the Core - The current Niño3.4 index confirms the entry into the La Niña state. In historical La Niña years, Argentina and southern Brazil were prone to high - temperature droughts, significantly increasing the risk of damage to soybean yield per unit area [34]. 3.4.2 The Game of Sino - US Relations is Long - Term - In the short term, China is likely to fulfill its procurement commitment, supporting US soybean exports. However, due to continuous losses in commercial crushing profits, procurement may be mainly policy - driven, and market - based demand is difficult to start, weakening the guiding role of US soybean prices globally [38]. - In the long term, Sino - US competition stems from deep - seated differences in development stages, core interests, and global strategies, with characteristics of long - term nature, complexity, and recurrence [39]. 3.5 Outlook for US Soybean Investment Strategies 3.5.1 Idea of Buying on Dips - In 2026, the global soybean supply - demand pattern is tight. It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips, as the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [40]. 3.5.2 Supply Side: Focus on the Weather in Main - Producing Areas - The first stage (January - February): It is the critical growth period for South American soybeans. Establish long positions based on the weather changes in southern South American producing areas [42]. - The second stage (February - March): It is the game period for the US sown area. The "soybean - to - corn price ratio" is important, and the current ratio is at a medium level with future uncertainties [46]. - The third stage: It is the critical growth period for US soybeans. Establish long positions based on the weather changes in the US Midwest main - producing areas from mid - July to mid - August [48]. 3.5.3 Demand Side: The Sino - US Game May be Repeatedly Traded - Pay close attention to the dynamics of Sino - US relations. When there is a policy expectation gap, timely layout relevant trading opportunities [52].