金融工程2026年度策略：蓝图绘就千般景，砺新自强万里程

Market Structure - The A-share market has formed a dual-core industrial structure centered on technology growth and midstream manufacturing, driven by macroeconomic cycles, industrial policy guidance, and market funding preferences [6][9][12] - The technology sector has developed into a high-prosperity cluster with significant internal linkage, while the manufacturing sector serves as a market stabilizer, maintaining connections with various fields [10][12] - The TMT sector has shown a clear rotation characteristic with midstream manufacturing since 2021, constituting the core direction for market capital allocation [12][16] Market Sentiment - The three-dimensional sentiment model provides an objective and sensitive monitoring of market sentiment, which is crucial for observing phase changes in the market [23][51] - In 2025, the market sentiment exhibited a dual-cycle pattern, with a small cycle from January 6 to April 14 and a larger cycle from April 15 to October 29, reflecting the complex interplay of policy and external factors [51][52] - The sentiment phases are closely linked to industrial rotation, with TMT industries gaining prominence during positive sentiment periods, while upstream resource industries serve as defensive plays during cautious sentiment [52][53] Policy Frequency Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight a strategic emphasis on technological innovation and manufacturing, indicating a shift towards self-reliance and security in the industrial framework [56][57] - The frequency of terms related to safety, technology, and energy in the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a deepening focus on these areas, reflecting their importance in the context of modernizing China's economy [57]