螺纹热卷日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous decline, steel prices generally maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. Iron ore and hot-rolled coils led the decline in the black sector, while coal and coke led the rise. Steel spot trading was generally average, and terminal demand was also average [5]. - It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline next week, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and the subsequent driving force for active production cuts is limited. Recently, due to the significant increase in foreign coal supply and the main contract change, coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills also have restocking expectations. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although the seasonal decline in building materials demand continues, manufacturing demand still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short-term exports continue to be high. Last week, coal and coke futures prices stopped falling and stabilized, but thermal coal spot prices still declined. Short-term steel prices may show a bottom - oscillating trend affected by raw materials, but due to seasonal factors, they will perform weaker than in November [5]. - The unilateral trend will maintain a range - oscillating pattern and may rebound from the bottom in the short term. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio and the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread when the price is high. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,240 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3,120 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3,240 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3,170 yuan (unchanged) [4] Market Judgement - Transaction Strategy: After the previous decline, steel prices maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. Iron ore and hot - rolled coils led the decline in the black sector, while coal and coke led the rise. Steel spot trading was average, and terminal demand was general. Last week, the output of the five major steel products continued to decrease, but the reduction rate slowed down. Rebar production decreased faster, while hot - rolled coil production increased due to rising profits. Molten iron output continued to decline; total steel inventory continued to decline, with social inventory decreasing and factory inventory increasing. Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for steel accelerated to decline this week. The demand for rebar declined more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the demand for cold - rolled coil still increased supported by the manufacturing industry. It is expected that molten iron output will continue to decline next week, but blast furnace profit has recovered, and the subsequent driving force for active production cuts is limited. Recently, affected by a significant increase in foreign coal supply and main contract change, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down. However, in December, coal mine supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills have restocking expectations. There is a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, manufacturing demand still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short - term exports continue to be high. Last week, coal and coke futures prices stopped falling and stabilized, but thermal coal spot prices still declined. Short - term steel prices may show a bottom - oscillating trend affected by raw materials, but due to seasonal factors, they will perform weaker than in November. Continue to pay attention to the impact of macro news on the market. Subsequently, continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] - Unilateral Strategy: Maintain a range - oscillating trend and may rebound from the bottom in the short term [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio and the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread when the price is high [7] - Options Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - Important Information: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in November decreased by 1.03% [9][10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][14][16]