甲醇年报：需求承压，甲醇价格重心或继续下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the price center likely to continue moving downward. Although downstream new capacity is still being put into operation at a relatively high rate and methanol demand shows some resilience, the real - estate sector will still be in an adjustment phase, dragging down methanol demand. Meanwhile, domestic planned new methanol capacity is large, imports will remain at a relatively high level, and coal prices will stabilize at a low level. Methanol supply pressure is high, and the overall demand is under pressure [11]. - For trading strategies, short - selling on rallies is recommended, with a pressure level of 2250. For options, selling call options is advised [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual View and Strategy - Macro and Coal Prices: The global economic growth rate is slowing down, and the domestic real - estate industry is still in a slump. Coal supply may be restricted under safety supervision policies, thermal coal demand is flat, chemical coal demand increases, and coal prices will mainly remain stable [11]. - View on Methanol Market: In 2026, the methanol market will face high supply pressure and weak demand. The price center is likely to continue to decline. The recommended trading strategy is to go short on rallies, with a pressure level of 2250, and sell call options [11]. 3.2 Market Review and Technical Analysis - Market Review: In 2025, the methanol price showed a volatile downward trend. From January to June, new domestic methanol capacity was put into operation intensively, and high port inventory and a weak macro - environment led to a downward trend. From June to July, the price rebounded due to low port inventory and external events, and then fell back. From August to the present, a large increase in imports and high port inventory led to a continuous decline [25]. - Technical Analysis: The technical trend of methanol is weak, with a pressure level of 2250 and a support level of 1950 [30]. 3.3 Macro and Coal Prices - Macro: The global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy shows strong resilience, with an expected growth rate of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. China's foreign trade has maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months as of November [40]. - Coal: The raw coal production rate is low, and production is restricted. In the first half of 2025, raw coal production increased, but in the second half, it decreased year - on - year. Coal and lignite imports decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. Thermal coal demand decreased, while chemical coal demand increased. Coal prices may remain stable, with a downward trend in the first half of 2025 and a rebound in the second half [46][56]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - Spot Price and Basis: The Taicang methanol spot price has fallen to a five - year low, and the basis has fluctuated [62]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Coastal methanol spot prices are weaker than inland prices due to high port inventory [65]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices: International methanol prices mainly declined in 2025 [71]. - Inter - contract Spread: Recently, due to slow unloading, port inventory has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has rebounded from a low level [79]. - Related Product Ratios: The ratio of methanol to urea has remained at a relatively high level, and the ratio of methanol to liquefied petroleum gas decreased to a relatively low level in the fourth quarter [83]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Profits - Import Profit and Trade Margin: Import profit and the trade margin from Inner Mongolia to East China have fluctuated [88][90]. - Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year high [99]. - Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit: Natural gas and coke oven gas - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year low [104]. - Methanol - to - Olefin Profit: Methanol - to - olefin profit still shows a large - scale loss [112]. - Traditional Downstream Profit: Traditional downstream profits are poor and at a five - year low [116][121]. 3.6 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Production: From January to November 2025, China's methanol production was 9.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.1%, a 2% increase compared to the same period last year [130]. - International Operating Rate and Imports: From August to October 2025, methanol imports increased by 30% year - on - year [136]. - New Capacity in 2025 and 2026: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with an increase of about 7.3% [139][140]. 3.7 Demand Side - Apparent Consumption of Methanol: From January to October 2025, methanol apparent consumption was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.67% [146]. - Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production: The MTO operating rate is 90.2%, at a high level [150]. - Traditional Downstream Operating Rate: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [154][158]. - Downstream Purchasing Volume: Downstream new capacity is being put into operation at a relatively high rate, and the corresponding methanol consumption is 10.52 million tons, indicating some resilience in methanol demand [173]. 3.8 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, at a relatively low level and showing narrow fluctuations [179]. - Port Inventory: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.2344 million tons, remaining at a high level [182].