2026年棉花期货行情展望：“低价”和供应压力之间的拉扯

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price in 2026 is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. The international cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and the demand remains unoptimistic. The cotton supply and demand in China in the 2025/26 season are likely to be strong. Due to sufficient supply both internationally and domestically, there is a lack of upward drivers for cotton prices, but the downside space is limited. The cotton futures of both domestic and international markets are expected to continue the range - bound oscillation trend of 2025. [2][85][86] - It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy, combined with on - exchange and off - exchange option operations. [3][86] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Cotton Futures Market Review - In 2025, most of the time, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) cotton futures traded within a narrow range of 13,200 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and ICE cotton futures was generally low in 2025, and the pricing of domestic cotton futures became more independent. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and the Shanghai Composite Index was high at certain stages in 2025, indicating that the CZCE cotton futures were affected by external market sentiment. The basis of domestic cotton in 2025 was generally strong. [5][6] 2. 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 2.1 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply - The global cotton supply in 2026 is expected to be loose. The global cotton output in the 2025/26 season is at a relatively high level, mainly due to the significant increase in cotton production in China and Brazil for the second consecutive year. The supply of major cotton - exporting countries is expected to remain stable, but Brazil and the United States face greater export pressure. [13][14][24] - The planting intentions of major cotton - producing countries in 2026 need attention. Brazil's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is not expected to decrease, but if there is inventory backlog, it may affect future planting enthusiasm. The cotton - to - grain ratio in the United States is at a historical low, and U.S. cotton exports may affect the 2026 cotton planting area. India's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be slightly reduced, and it is necessary to pay attention to its textile and clothing exports and cotton imports. [29][35][40] 2.2 2026 Global Cotton Market Demand - The global cotton consumption outlook remains unoptimistic. The USDA estimates that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.88 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the 2024/25 season. The global textile and clothing trade volume in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, but there is a risk of a decline in global trade volume. The direct cotton demand of major textile - producing countries is restricted by weak terminal demand and operational difficulties of textile enterprises. [44][48][50] 3. 2026 China Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 3.1 2026 China Cotton Supply - The total cotton supply in China in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. China's cotton output in 2025 increased significantly for the second consecutive year. The cotton and cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase slightly. The initial inventory of cotton in the new season is low, and the supply pressure is postponed to after March 2026. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable. [57][58][61] 3.2 2026 China Cotton Consumption - The terminal textile and clothing consumption situation is not optimistic, but the direct cotton demand for textile production is expected to be stable. The continuous release of new textile production capacity will support the domestic cotton demand, but attention should be paid to the profit and inventory status of textile enterprises. [66][67][76]