2026年鸡蛋期货年度行情展望：产能加速去化，周期反转

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg industry in 2026 has the conditions to start an upward cycle as the capacity reduction has begun in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to continuous losses, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful because of the rapid increase in market scale and the large - scale idle capacity of leading groups [2][32] - The industry's cash - flow consumption has led to a decline in the supply in 2026, and on the demand side, the market will return to normal with stable regular consumption, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [3][32][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Egg Futures and Spot Price Trend Review - The 2025 egg futures and spot prices resonated, with the market pessimistic due to the confirmed supply increase. The price trend was divided into five stages: 1 - 2 months, expectation - dominated and sideways; 3 - 5 months, futures and spot prices resonated and were anchored to cost; 6 - 7 months, futures and spot prices deviated with expectations leading; 8 - 10 months, the peak season was not prosperous, and both futures and spot prices declined; 11 - 12 months, the elimination increased, and the market traded the cycle reversal in advance [6][7][8][9][10] 2. 2026 Egg Operation Logic: Cycle May Reverse, but the Industrial Structure Does Not Support Sustained Profits 2.1 Supply Side: The Capacity Decline Trend Is Confirmed, and the Supply Decreases - The industry has entered the cash - flow loss stage, and the capacity reduction cycle has started. After 4 years of profit from 2021 - 2024, the industry entered a loss in 2025, and the capacity reduction cycle began in the fourth quarter [13] - The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased, but large - scale farming may lead to accelerated replenishment in the next round. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased since August 2025, and the存栏 is expected to decline in the first half of 2026. However, referring to the pig industry, the egg industry may accelerate the replenishment rhythm [16] - The elimination of old chickens has accelerated, but the total elimination is still insufficient. The elimination of old chickens has accelerated in November 2025, but the corporate side may extend the elimination rhythm. The存栏 structure has been optimized, and the egg - laying rate of the newly replenished chicks in 2026 is expected to increase [21][22] 2.2 Demand Side: Consumption Support May Fall Short of Expectations - The seasonal consumption pattern of eggs continues. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the festival consumption has a significant short - term price - boosting effect. The inventory fluctuations in 2025 were larger than in 2024 [25] - The strong egg consumption did not continue. In 2025, egg consumption was strong in the off - season but weak in the peak season. The large amount of cold - storage eggs in the off - season overdrafted the peak - season demand, and the per - capita consumption reached the upper limit [27] - The pig cycle has entered a downward stage, and the substitution demand has weakened. In 2025, the pig price declined, and the substitution effect of pork on eggs increased, suppressing egg consumption [29][30] 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The capacity reduction cycle has started, and the cycle is expected to reverse. In 2026, the industry has the conditions to start an upward cycle, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful [32] - On the supply side, the supply in 2026 will decrease year - on - year due to over 8 months of losses in 2025 and the acceleration of social elimination [32] - On the demand side, the cold - storage egg volume in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025, and regular consumption will be stable, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [33] 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, it is in the consumption off - season, with high inventory and young chicken age. The spot price is expected to fluctuate between 2,400 - 4,000 yuan/500 kg. In the second half of the year, if there is over - elimination in the first half and the impact of high temperature on the egg - laying rate, the price may rise significantly, with the core fluctuation range of the spot price expected to be 3,300 - 4,700 yuan/ton and the futures index between 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [35] - In terms of trading strategies, go long on peak - season contracts at low prices in the first half of the year, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price reaches the peak in the third quarter. The industry should arrange hedging according to expected profits [35]